VTN(Video Technology News) Editors' Top Five Predictions For 1998............................
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As we prepare to put the final wrap on 1997, we again dare to make a few predictions for the coming year.
On the whole, 1997 could be summed up as the year of no surprises. The FCC was due to set a digital TV standard early on, and it did. Computer groups were not entirely happy with it, and they tried for foster their own solution, which never got off the ground.
To be sure, there are substantial business and technical questions surrounding digital television, but none of these appear to be insurmountable. At most, the industry will have to put up with some temporary fixes for a little while.
So at the risk of putting ourselves out on a limb for another year, here is what we expect to occur in 1998:
HD or Multichannel
As our lead story in this week's issue points out, standard-definition, multichannel broadcasting will emerge as the initial driver for digital television. We fully expect high-definition service to develop in 2000 and beyond, but the initial market will be for more standard-definition gear.
The reason is simple. There ain't no sets (affordable ones, that is), and there probably won't be until the turn of the millennium. Even then, expect to see a lot of widescreen standard-def sets to enter the livingroom before the full-blown HD receivers gain significant share.
For the pro video manufacturing community, this means product development plans should be based on "more of the same" thinking for the time being, while keeping HD efforts in the R&D stage.
That being said, we fully expect to see a raft of new HD gear at NAB in 1998. However, it would surprise us if anyone actually bought any of it. The bigger demand is likely to be in switchable aspect ratio products, which can be used to cut news for today's televisions and future widescreen units.
PCTV
Even as we went to press, this issue was already shaping up to be a non-event in 1998. Now that Intel [INTL] is touting a universal decoder that would recognize all 18 ATSC combinations, there is virtually no chance that a sizable number of non-ATSC PCTVs will flood the market, pulling viewers away from broadcast services.
All indications are that, aside from Compaq [CMPQ], none of the major computer manufacturers are going to add digital TV receivers to their lines in 1998. That means the market for Intel chips is likely to be advanced digital TV receivers capable of providing all manner of Web-related interactive options. PC manufacturers will likely add digital receivers only after broadcasters take to the air, the bulk of which won't happen until 1999 and beyond.
Digital Tape
Beta SX or DVCPRO? Who will win? That's likely to be the hot topic around the water cooler next year.
Expect Beta SX to gain a larger slice of the pie, but we think DVCPRO will continue to be the market leader for the rest of the year. Right now, Panasonic appears to have a cost advantage, and it has an impressive list of technology partners providing DV-compatible gear. Sony has yet to announce Beta SX partners, though it insists the Partners Program is getting strong support.
Where does this put JVC's Digital-S? In the industrial market. Although JVC is pitching the system as a broadcast solution, it's doubtful that parent Matsushita is going to cannibalize DVCPRO. Digital-S is therefore likely to become an alternative to Sony's DVCAM.
Trade Shows
What is the best venue for your marketing dollar? Clearly, NAB and IBC will be the strong shows this year. But even events like SMPTE and Montreux will continue to prove valuable for top-tier executives, even if they fade as valuable sales opportunities.
1998 is a skip year for Montreux. But even in future years, expect the strength of the conference program and the lighter attendance to provide a good networking and deal-making forum for VPs and CEOs.
The same goes for SMPTE. At barely 5,000 attendees this year, it is hardly enough of a draw to justify a large presence. But with continued support from the major manufacturers, many of whose top executives are solid members, the show will continue to draw the top people.
Wheeling and Dealing
One of the strongest trends to continue from 1997 into 1998 will be the rash of deal-making and acquisitions that have gripped the industry.
Most manufacturers recognize that no one can provide optimal systems across all product categories, and broadcasters and other customers are eager to mix and match systems to build the facility that suits their needs. That's the true benefit of open systems and that is why we've seen Panasonic, Avid [AVID] and others partner with competitors. Getting a small piece of a turnkey project is better than nothing at all.
What are the most likely partnership/acquisition scenarios? In addition to Quantel, we think there are a number of companies that would benefit from adopting Java functionality in their systems. Sun Microsystems [SUNW] had a large presence at NAB this year, and the company is eager to become a major player in the video market. |
