Yeltsin Wins One Battle, Another Looms (Reuters)
MOSCOW, May. 15, 1999 -- (Reuters)
President Boris Yeltsin escaped the threat of impeachment on Saturday but his victory does not mean Russia's political and economic crisis is about to end.
The failure of the opposition-dominated State Duma, the Lower House of parliament, to muster enough votes to start impeachment proceedings against Yeltsin reduced the threat of a constitutional crisis or a violent confrontation.
But it ended only one battle in the war between the ailing and unpredictable president and his Communist-led opponents, and leaves in power the man who many politicians have come to regard as the main source of instability in Russia.
The next battle looms on Wednesday when Yeltsin's nominee, Sergei Stepashin, seeks the chamber's approval to become Prime Minister to replace Yevgeny Primakov, who was backed by the Duma but abruptly sacked by the president on May 12.
Stepashin could face a rough ride, and Yeltsin will have to dissolve the Duma and call an election if it rejects him three times. The ingredients are there for another high-stakes showdown that puts normal economic and political life on hold.
"I think the odds that Stepashin will get through are not all that great," said political analyst Andrei Kortunov.
"It's a tough call and, in the end, a lot will depend on Yeltsin's personal decisions. Last year he played it soft. This year I think he may be more likely to play it hard."
Kortunov was referring to a stand-off with the Duma last September when Yeltsin was seeking the chamber's approval for his old ally, Viktor Chernomyrdin, to return as Prime Minister.
The Duma voted Chernomyrdin down twice and Yeltsin backed away from confrontation by nominating the more conservative Primakov, who proved acceptable to the opposition.
This time, Yeltsin has no obvious alternative to Stepashin, who seems as likely as anyone in the Yeltsin camp to be acceptable to the Communists. He is a conservative who, as interior minister, took a firm line against crime.
A lot will depend on the Communists' frame of mind after their failure in the impeachment vote. Some analysts say it could demoralize them and crush their resolve to do battle.
But Saturday's defeat could have the reverse effect of strengthening their determination to take Yeltsin on to salvage some pride ahead of a parliamentary election in December.
They could do so by blocking Stepashin and forcing Yeltsin to disband the Duma and call an early election.
"An early election would inevitably aggravate the situation. It would provoke another rouble fall and cause a suspension in relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)," the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper wrote this week.
The rouble has wobbled against the dollar since Primakov's dismissal, which followed several weeks of relative stability for the battered currency following its crash when Russia sank into economic crisis last August.
The IMF has offered new credits to Russia provided the Duma passes a series of economic reform laws, but that deal is now up in the air. Any fresh progress on economic reforms would also be in question if parliament were dissolved
The Communists face a dilemma. If they reject Stepashin, Yeltsin could punish them by exercising his right to dissolve the Duma, appoint the premier of his choice and rule by decree until a new election is held in three months.
This might scare the Communists into submission. If the Duma were disbanded, Yeltsin could simply install a liberal economist such as former Finance Minister Anatoly Chubais as premier - a prospect the Communists would hate.
"In general, we think that the probability of a new Prime Minister being approved by the Duma is quite high. We estimate it at around 80 percent, with the probability of the Duma being dissolved at 20 percent," United Financial Group said this week.
At least the situation has been avoided in which a constitutional crisis could have loomed, with the Duma blocking Stepashin's appointment and impeachment proceedings under way.
In this case, it would not have been clear if Yeltsin had the right to carry out his constitutional duty to dissolve the Duma because the constitution says he is deprived of that power once impeachment proceedings have been started.
The danger of Yeltsin resorting to using force to crush parliament into submission, as he did in 1993, is also reduced.
But many politicians and political analysts say instability will linger as long as Yeltsin remains president. At 68, his decisions and behavior are often puzzling, his popularity is almost zero and he is increasingly isolated.
His poor health was also underlined by his visit to hospital for what the Kremlin said were routine medical checks on Saturday, just before deputies voted in the Duma.
Putting the case for impeachment, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov said keeping Yeltsin in power would mean prolonging uncertainty and stagnation in Russia.
"Anyone voting in support of Yeltsin votes for a new Chechnya (war), for fresh destruction, for fresh disgrace and lawlessness," he said.
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