Carl, TRKN is going nowhere until they get a major deal for production systems. Until then....TRKN gets the one system sales for R&D, therefore it's hard to project earnings.
It seems that the majority of current boom in orders is due to existing FABs expanding vs new fabs. Therfore, TRKN is not getting any part of this action.
Investors are getting concerned that TRKN has not been able to get a major production deal...even with great technology and a growing industry....this raises the following issue, are their systems production worthy?? and when you take everything into account, technology, service, reliability, etc...does TRKN equipment really provide that much of an advantage over AMAT, LRCX, etc ?? At this point(.35u - .25u), based on the lack of FAB acceptance of their equipment in mainstream production the answer seems to be no.
However, I think TRKN provides some significant advantages in the below.25u area and I suspect that is where they will find acceptance for their tools. On the flip side of that...how long does TRKN have to wait before FABs start to move to .18u and do they have the $$$$ to stay in the game that long.
In my opinion TRKN has to crack the .25u market and get production orders. I don't thing they can survive waiting for the .18u market. Lets not forget the 300mm stuff starting up....I understand that they already have the 300mm MORI source and are in the process of developing the tool.
dave
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