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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (26624)	6/7/2001 10:07:10 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) of 37746

raptor: Very difficult market to make money in. Market movements are counterintuitive. I remain in the sidelines in cash and will remain patient. One of two things will happen: (1) the market will run away from me as I wait through Q2 earnings warning season to give me a better entry point for the super-QQQ's (1900-2000). No harm done, no money lost. Only loss is opportunity cost. (2) the market will overextend itself on the "business is stabilizing" theme, with NASDAQ peaking at 2800-3000. This will give me the opportunity to short the QQQ's with Rydex or ProFunds, a high percentage play. If we do have a summer rally, I think September will prove to be the cruelest month of all. What will derail the NASDAQ express train? My guess is: the same thing that started the rally in early April. Just as investors tired of hearing about "lack of visibility" and negative forward guidance, investors will tire of hearing how "business is turning around" or "we've seen the bottom" and will stop reacting to that mantra. When Q3 shows that business may not be getting worse, but is NOT improving, the normal response of punishing stocks that miss earnings and give negative guidance will resurface.

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