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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: JC Jaros who wrote (26727)1/25/2000 12:08:00 PM
From: johnd  Read Replies (4) of 64865
 
JC Jaros:
You know, as good investors, we have to always question
whether a stock will go up, down or sideways over the
short haul and long haul. Primarily the long haul if on
is a real long term investor.

SUNW is great company with solid marketing and sales and
positioned itself well in ASPs such as exodus with 90% of
exodus running on SUN. SUNW also has good backlog. Has done
well against IBM and HP on servers.

But we also got to realize that the stock has gone up 400%
in 12 months. Will it go up another 400% in the 12 months
or will it go down 100% or will it stay sideways or move
up or down some other %. That is the question we have to
ponder.

There are +ves if done well: Such as US3 if ships on time.
But there are enormous risks.

(a) Execution on US3 and on time system shipment. IBM has
their S80 now volume shipping and the new server chief
is cutting prices and moving aggressively against SUN.
(b) HP is also coming in heavily to compete. They haven't
succeeded in the past.
(c) Windows 2000. This is a wild card. The real market space
one has to watch is 2-way, 4-way, 8-way and 16-way.
In this space will the wintel crowd do the same thing
they did on the workstation market?

The risks are quite heavy. Opportunities are there. Can SUN
easily ward off a,b,c? Time will tell. But wall street is
unforgiving, when it comes to decceleration of growth at the
first smell of slowing growth, mutual funds dump before we
do and we get stuck.

It is important to look from all angles. Not just rosier
and rosier glasses. Just helping overly optimistic folks
on this thread.
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