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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (26740)3/16/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: valueminded  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Mike:

Thanks for your commentary as usual. Here are a few thoughts on Mu and some questions at the end. agree/disagree

1. Regarding the earnings statement. I am less than impressed and here is why:
...Operating loss of 208 million. (almost $1/share before the tax benefit and the gain on sale benefit). Real earnings should show 0.41/share net loss not 0.23 as one time benefits/charges are not usually included in the analysts estimates unless they are publicly known before hand.
...Inventories are the same as last quarter but sales were down ? It does seem a little confusing that tester capability was blamed for lower sales but inventory remained same ($ value which implies higher number of units since $/mbit ram has decreased from November 30 to now)
...Cash flow from operations (w/o sale of subsidary) does not look good.
2. Regarding valuation.
...If MUEI is valued in the market at 1.1billion market cap and we subtract from MU's market cap we get about 6 billion for the semiconductor end. If sales are double the last 6months sales of 723 million for a year sales of 1.5 billion, we get a price to sales ratio of 4.
...In Fisher's book Superstocks, he considers one of the prime criteria of stocks, as the price to sales ratio. He likes to see <1 for good buys but certainly would consider less than 2:1 a requirement especially for what may be a low margin business. For comparison purposes, consider Texas Instruments. Its price to sales is less than 2:1 or Motorola its price to sales is less than 2:1.
3. no way is this stock currently worth >$30 in my opinion.

Now a few questions, for next quarters earnings report.

1. When is the interest payments due on the convertibles (I thought it was April but could be wrong)
2. Will they make up the sales that they lose by selling the contract manufacturing business?
3. How well will MUEI continue to do if the pricing pressure in the market is causing CPQ (arguably one of the more efficient manufacturs) difficulties
4. Finally, if MU still has 500 million left in the registration for sale, which brokerage house will be the first to upgrade the stock to get a shot at the lucrative offeriing ?

thanks
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