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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: orkrious who wrote (268012)	11/19/2003 1:46:10 PM
From: ild	of 436258

From JPM October Book-To-Bill Forecast • We are forecasting the SEMI October book-to-bill ratio to be in the range of 1.0 to 1.02. The book-to-bill for October will be released at 3:00pm PST on November 19th. This should mark the first time the ratio exceeds 1:1 since August 2002. • Strong order growth should move front-end book-to-bill near 1.0.We are forecasting the three month moving average for front-end orders to increase 10% to $625 million. Equipment shipments are still lagging and we are forecasting a 1% increase in shipments. • We estimate the test/assembly ratio at 1.05, flat with the previous month. In our opinion, unit growth in semiconductors should continue to drive healthy demand in the test/assembly space. Recent capital spending projections from test and assembly subcontractors are for > 25% year over year growth. • In our opinion, equipment companies are poised to deliver a positive booking surprise at the December quarter-end. From an industry perspective, we expect chip and equipment stocks to trend higher along with an accelerating year-over-year semiconductor industry revenue growth rate profile.

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