Re your note to John W. :
<< (1) "Anyone who shares David Crossen's view on the lifespan of Viracept which at this time is their only marketed drug is negative on the company's fundamentals."
(2) "It would appear a lot of people on these threads are investing/or shorting Viracept not Agouron Pharmaceuticals. Viracept is only the first chapter of Agourons story. Yeah, it is a great beggining...but the huge profits will be in the future. "
Were these two comments really written by the same person? >>
In the above you quoted two of John W.'s posts and then asked the final question. Subsequently John replied. (Reply not quoted here).
In the interests of exploring how much of the value of AGPH is in Viracept and how much is in the drug pipeline, I looked at my valuation model. I calculate a fair value of AGPH at $55 right now (LMoss likes $148 or so for the current value). But using my valuation model, and looking at AGPH without Viracept, I get a current value of $31. So I get AGPH value as 44% Viracept and 56% pipeline.
My valuation model has Viracept with a long life, with Viracept sales peaking in fiscal 2000 at $1.1 billion, and slowly declining after that.
So John W.'s notes are not at all inconsistent, at least to me.
BTW, as a result of the very kind feedback from the annual meeting attendees, I adjusted the valuation model and as a result the fair value of AGPH came down about $1.50, to the $55 mentioned above, mostly due to the European approval delay.
Also BTW, for those interested in watching somebody make foolish short term predictions, I predict AGPH will trade above $47.50 by Thursday.
As always no refunds or even sympathy for those misled by my opinions. |
