401k Update -
With DOW closing at ~13,449, I moved out of the MidCap funds to Foreign Bonds today at the close. So, I captured a move from 12,846 to 13,449 or ~ 600 pts. DOW could rocket on to new highs, but I am mindful of the following: Sept is tradtionally worst month of the year (of course, that d/n happen last year!); 1st day of the month runup (worked as expected); Oct aka crash-month - I think I may have an opportunity to buy back in later for less.
Responding ToMessage #269 from Rutgers at 8/17/2007 10:05:34 AM
401k Update -
Not being able to make an intra-day trade really, really hurts in the 401K. I would have been all over the minus 300 point move yesterday afternoon. Nevertheless, the snap-back rally off the lows was very powerful and caused me to move a tranche from the Stable Asset Fund to a MidCap fund [in edit - DOW closed at 12,846 today] . Obviously, I had no idea that the Fed would cut [the discount] interest rate by a full 50 basis points this AM. Hopefully, this will cause a mini-bull run instead of a gap'n crap. As I write this, DOW is up ~ 185pts, but it was up well over 300 earlier. In any event, these are interesting times.
Responding ToMessage #259 from Rutgers at 10/11/2006 10:08:59 AM
Responding ToMessage #257 from Rutgers at 9/4/2006 4:45:52 PM
401 K update - - made a new move before last Friday's close
note to self - made this move via WiFi
DOW closed at ~ 11,464 on Friday. Since we are now in Sept., I want to be out of long funds for the historically weakest month of each year. Fortunately, I got lucky and we had the proverbial mutual-fund- first-day-of-the-month with a real nice runup. Even though I think the DOW could still try to make (or break) a double top from the spring high, I will take the scalp here for almost 250 points that the DOW is up since the last transaction and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. I am now back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #255 from Rutgers at 8/4/2006 2:21:34 PM
401 K update - foiled again! After seeing the ramp-up this AM, I decided I would put my orders in later this afternoon for an EOD move *if* the mkt cooperated, which I thought had a good chance of dumping...and, of course, I return a few hours later to see the rally go the other way. Damn, the mkt is a mischievous mistress, as my old pal Slocum was found of saying. If I was brighter, I should have thought about shorting the QQQs given my gut feeling that this was not gonna last...
Responding ToMessage #243 from Rutgers at 5/17/2006 4:37:28 PM
401 K update - made a new move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,206 this afternoon. Much to my chagrin, I indeed made a premature move despite my rather eerily accurate prediction for the Dow. Now, at the time of my last post on this subject, I was expecting an early May swoon. However, it went the other way.
Since the Dow was sitting around 11,700 only last week, I see this large move down as going too far too fast. Thus, I went back into equities before EOD. Recall, I am bound to EOD trades only in the 401k. This is a little dangerous b/c the momentum is all-down right now (trend is your friend), so I am only looking for a little reprieve via a snap-back bounce. Once again...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #223 from Rutgers at 4/5/2006 4:24:28 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,239 this afternoon. So, since we are in April and I want to be out of long funds before tax day, I got out before EOD. Even though I think the DOW could still bust out to the 11,700 range, I will take the scalp here for the 130 points that the DOW is up since last Friday (up every day so far in this new Quarter) and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. Now, I am back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #218 from Rutgers at 3/31/2006 4:22:40 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,109 this afternoon. This was not antipicated when I went got out of all long funds two weeks ago. But, with the Dow down more than 100 pts since then (and, btw, I did fail to call the top, but I wasn't really trying to call the top inasmuch as I am restricted to EOD calls...besides I am still ahead by catching it on this side of the trade).
I went back long at EOD primarily for two reasons: first, studies have shown that the first trading day of each month is historically strong due to in-flows and second, mkt held up much better than I expected during the last two weeks...so maybe we can get a bounce back up next week. Don't misunderstand, I am of the school of thought that believes in the four-year cycle lows and when combined with the absence of a 10% move down in close to three years...I gotta believe that 10% move to the downside is likely before the end of October...
so...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #202 from Rutgers at 3/15/2006 4:36:37 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at 11,210 this afternoon. The last move - go to primarily all long - was made on Dec. 9th when the DOW closed at 10,778. So, this move was good for more than 400 pts on the Upside. I think it is time to protect profits inasmuch as 16 of the last 19 weeks after March exp. have been down weeks...I truly hope that the DOW's run continues b/c I want to unwind a few long positions and perhaps short the S&P if it does go higher before end of this week.
Responding To Message #134 from Rutgers at 12/9/2005 4:25:43 PM
401 K update - made a move
DOw closed at 10,778 this afternoon. On Nov. 29th, I made my last move when the DOw closed at 10,888. Since the odds (76% historical ave.) favor next week as an up week ala Santa Rally, I moved the funds long again from ~cash. So, one to look at this move is that I have pocketed more than 100 pts, but my goal was to capture a bigger move. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks.
Responding To Message #130 from Rutgers at 11/29/2005 4:49:57 PM
Since some readings are saying that the mkt hasn't been this frothy in a bullish way since 2001, I figure it may be time for a sizable pull back. My 401 K trades, as most of you know, are tied to extreme overbought/oversold conditions. So far, this system has worked pretty well although there could be improvements. Anyway, based upon this data, I moved a nice portion from MidCap to SA fund. Now, ideally, I would love to see a 2 or 300 pt pullback w/i next week. Then, I would turnaround and reverse course, but we'll have to see how this plays out for now. If she d/n pullback here, and moves on to Dow 11K, then I will likely move the rest of the equities to bonds or stable assets.
Responding To Message #69 from Rutgers at 6/24/2005 4:20:21 PM
401 k - made yet another new move at EOD
With the Dow closing just under 10,300, I moved another slug from SA fund to the FA Fund.
I have one more big slug I could move, but I prefer to put on my rally cap at this point. |
