Don-
I doubt DVD will be a threat to hard drive storage any time soon. It will take some time for them to replace the current CD-ROMS, as well as standard VHS videotapes. The real driver, as the article mentioned , will be cost. They'll have to offer it at an attractive price. There will have to be a wide array of titles available, also at reasonable prices.
"...in practical terms, the cost of producing a disc is about half that of a videotape, which is after all a pretty complicated mechanical device."
Sure- and it costs probably less than $1.00 to mass produce a CD, but my local music store is still selling them at $16.00. How much will they want for a re-writeable DVD? What's a videotape selling for now, $1.00? It's all driven by price, and consumers' need for the latest and greatest.
As far as computer storage goes, DVD won't impact Ampex's high-end storage product (DST). Their DST line is simply state-of-the-art technology. I think the real competition will begin with video-on-demand. I'd much rather order a digital movie at home than trek over to the local DVD video rental store to rent the latest releases. Again- pricing and availability will be the driving force. If they make it affordable to request movies, it will sell big-time. Why buy a DVD when you can order it from home? Ampex is in a key position to sell their DST for video-on-demand providers.
The DVD might hurt DCT sales, but not anytime soon. Take a look at the annual report's picture of the DCT, and it's capabilities. Ampex knows what the professional video market needs. This is a pretty small market compared to consumer electronics (VCR's, CD-ROMS).
Also- how many computers are still using 3 1/2 inch floppies? I thought IOMEGA Zip drives would be in every PC by now. How many software titles are being released on zip discs? What about Sony's recordable mini-disc? A friend of mine stated they would eliminate cassettes, but that was at least two years ago. How many new vehicles are being sold with mini-disc players in them? None- because everyone has either CD's or cassettes. Same goes for the videotapes- until something better comes along that's affordable and widely accepted, what's out the now will remain the primary choice for consumers.
I think the magnetic storage industry will be able to keep ahead of DVD for providing a reliable, affordable, fast way of storing data. DVD will most likely affect CD-ROM part of the PC - not fixed disk storage. |
