Ibexx & All,
Ibexx, thanks for your thoughts, which in large part are in agreement with my own.
It is difficult to call bottoms, but long-term investors who are underweighted in Wintel should consider this as a good (though not spectacular, at least not as yet) buying opportunity. They will have to make their own call, however, as to how quickly to do so. To my mind, the "risk" of failing to pick the precise bottom of this correction is less important than the long-term rewards of accumulation of these great stocks at attractive prices. IMHO
Another matter to consider is that, according to its CFO, the Microsoft September quarter (1Q97) will not be anything to write home about, and that revenue (non-deferred, that is) growth rates for this FY will be lower than the spectacular rates of the last FY. Personally, I consider this not to be a long-term matter and thus not of primary concern to long-term holders. The market is good at discounting such matters.
To anyone who is listening, this is NOT a suggestion to "bet the farm", nor that the market, including the techs, may not have further to go. It simply is a statement that in attempting to call a bottom precisely, one may miss it entirely, and that Wintel is attractive here for long-term investors.
For the record, I am not particularly good at calling bottoms, but as I am not a trader I don't really need to be.
These statements are intended to be of help to long-term investors (i.e., they probably will provide little guidance to traders).
This is of course my own opinion, not that of Ibexx nor anyone else. As most readers of this thread are aware, I am an investor in Microsoft [as well as Intel among others], so my views are hardly unbiased by that fact.
Best regards,
Arno |
