Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line
HOTLINE
Obama-Biden 46%
McCain-Palin 44%
Undecided 9%
-- The race has tightened in the last day. After trailing by 5-7 pts. for the last 10 days, McCain is now just 2 pts. behind Obama.
--One potential reason: Obama's one-time lead on the question of who'd best handle the economy has evaporated. Today, Obama and McCain are tied at 42%. Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).
--Even so, among the 62% of voters who picked the economy as their #1 issue, Obama leads McCain by 9 pts. - 49-40%.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/4-6 by FD; surveyed 908 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.
Hotline After Dark -- No More Mr. Nice Guy
A lot of last night's TV focused on the John McCain camp attacking Barack Obama's associations with Bill Ayers.
NPR's Williams: "I think they'll go on to Reverend Wright. ... They are going to make Obama so dangerous that they are going to force people to rethink their support for him. ... The history of politics -- negative advertising and character assaults worked. ... It worked on John Kerry with swift-boating" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 10/6).
MSNBC's Matthews: "I see an attempt over the last several days to tie three points together in the thinking, of older voters especially, so that they can have a mystery about Barack Obama they haven't had last week. One, this question of his relationship with Bill Ayers. ... Two, his middle name Hussein. And three, the question of who his donor list includes" ("Hardball," 10/6).
Time's Tumulty: "People do negative campaigning traditionally because it works, but I think that it's more difficult to pull something like this off when you are in the middle of a crisis as big as this one" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/6).
More after the jump, including Obama's emphasis on the Keating scandal and debate advice.
(KATHERINE LEHR)
CNN's Crowley, on McCain going after Obama instead of talking about the economy: "It doesn't really seem like the McCain campaign at this point has much of a choice other than to do this. However, they also have to ... in some way shape or form have a plan for economy, whether it's a broad outline, something like that, because people, yes, can look, and it might change their mind about an opponent, but they also need to have something to vote for. So, it has to be a two-pronged strategy for McCain" ("Election Center," 10/6).
Ex-VA GOP Chair Kate Obenshain: "I was a little suspicious about this strategy until today, seeing the reaction of the Obama campaign. They really went ballistic over this. ... They are flipping out, but by this afternoon Barack Obama hardly knows the guy. That was a striking commentary" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 10/6).
Chicago Tribune's Page: "Conservatives love to hear about Jeremiah Wright again and again and Bill Ayers, et cetera. But independent voters have shown that they want to see less fighting and more problem solving, especially with the economy right now. So I don't see that they're going to get a lot of mileage by bringing this up again, especially now four weeks away from election day" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/6).
There was also reaction to the Obama camp criticizing McCain for his role in the "Keating Five":
Page: "You see how quickly the Obama campaign came out with this 15 minute documentary on the web. Obviously, they didn't make that Saturday night. That's been sitting there in the closet. Who knows what else is sitting there in the closet" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/6).
FNC's Garrett, on Obama not hitting McCain when asked about the Charles Keating scandal: "The campaign's explanation for Obama's stony silence: he wants to maintain focus on the economic issues. Of course, another explanation might be a prominent Obama supporter, former Ohio Senator John Glenn, was implicated as was McCain. He was exonerated just like McCain was and yet he was featured at an Obama rally yesterday in Ohio, so how scandalous could the behavior been after all?" ("Special Report," 10/6).
Ex-WH adviser David Gergen, on whether McCain and Obama bringing up old controversies carries risk: "Huge risks. It's almost as if we're living in two different universes. Most Americans are deeply, deeply concerned about the economy ... and we've got this other universe about the candidates wondering down historical roads. They seem irrelevant to most Americans. ... Most Americans care deeply about what these candidates are going to do in the next 20 months. And they're not hearing that. And they're going to penalize who harps on these personal things of the past and does not respond to and present a plan for economic future" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/6).
MORE US, LESS YOU
And there wasn't a shortage in advice/predictions for tonight's debate:
Washington Post's Bacon: "It's hard to imagine voters at a town hall are going to ask about Charles Keating or Bill Ayers. It will be hard for either one of the candidates to reroute how will you fix my health care into one of these personal attacks they're both doing. I suspect tomorrow may be different. They may preview attacks that won't actually come out tomorrow."
New York Daily News' DeFrank, in response: "As we learned at the vice presidential debate, there's always a way for skillful debaters to change the subject and not answer the question. Answer the question they want to answer, even if it is not the question that just got asked. ... I think they will both finds targets of opportunity there" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/6).
Tumulty: "In a town hall format the voters are going to be listening for these candidates to be talking about them, not about each other. They're really going to be asking questions probably about their own problems and not ... the candidates' character defects. So I think it would be very dangerous to try this anger strategy in a town hall forum" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/6).
Williams: "If I'm advising Senator McCain, I say you've got to go out there and make the case, especially tomorrow night in this town hall setting, which is, again, to McCain's advantage, you have to speak to people and say 'Are you really willing to trust Barack Obama with this difficult economy? Or do you want to trust me and my record, and what I have stood for? ... Let me tell you about Barack Obama's record on taxes, and let me tell you about the most liberal Senator. Let me tell you, when it comes to drilling and energy independence in this country, my record and where I stand right now compared to Barack Obama. Who do you agree with? And, finally, let's talk about the war and talk about who sacrificed for this country, and let's talk about who has not served this country in a time of war and made such a sacrifice" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/6).
Crowley: "In debates, moments matter. His numbers falling as the days disappear, John McCain has the most to gain in the town hall. He is a master in the forum -- engaging, funny, direct. And the Obama campaign has been busily jacking up the stakes. McCain, said an Obama aide, is the Michael Phelps of town halls. But the senator can be edgy and what he claims as humor can backfire in front of the uninitiated" ("Situation Room," 10/6).
DLC chair/'06 TN SEN candidate Harold Ford Jr. (D): "I thought McCain held his own in the first debate for one reason: he focused on the polling data that showed Americans believed he had better commander in chief and better leadership qualities. ... Barack will pay attention to these polls tonight, as he has been. He seized at the economy, economic angst and concern and anxiety on the parts of Americans in Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, at the forefront of their minds. He will organize his presentation tomorrow night around those very issues. He will bring the conversation back to those issues to point out the vast differences between he and John McCain. ... He is going to have to answer some tough questions, but he will continue to focus this debate on the economy" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 10/6).
Dick Morris: "I do believe that McCain in the debate has got to make the issue of taxes stick. ... The issue of Ayers and all that will be useful and effective, but the thing that could destroy Obama is taxes" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 10/6).
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