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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 162.77+2.6%Dec 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: LLCF who wrote (2729)10/16/1997 9:34:00 PM
From: Ian@SI   of 10921
 
PB,

Re growth vs momentum: I believe it's a market of stocks not a stock market. i.e. Book to bill is monolithic; doesn't tell you the story for Assembly, Test, Front End which most probably are quite different. Doesn't say anything about what is happening with NVLS, AMAT, LRCX, UTEK or any other individualn stock.

Further if the magnitude in the month to month growth is large enough for individual companies, then their earnings momentum may accelerate even as the B2B goes down. An excessive book to bill ratio on the other hand implies that lead times are increasing, customer service is deteriorating (can't give customers machines when they need them), and barriers to competition are being reduced. E.g. - SVGI has the technologically superiour step and Scanner but can't deliver, so the other 3 main players take market that was sitting there ready and waiting for SVGI.

Enough rambling. Book to bill is ok. People who misuse it deserve what they get.

GM,

I agree completely. It doesn't matter whether the decision is brilliant or ridiculous.

DAK,

Just because the market is wrong doesn't mean that it can't stay wrong for a very long period of time. I think today was flat out stupid and wrong. So I stepped up to the plate again. That still doesn't mean that it won't go even lower tomorrow.

Best regards to all,
Ian.
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