China sees itself becoming as influential as US
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
Published: October 11 2006 23:53 | Last updated: October 11 2006 23:53
The Chinese see their country matching the US in terms of global influence within the next 10 years, while a majority of Americans, Chinese and Indians see the US losing its status as the world’s unrivalled superpower within the next half century, according to an international poll released on Wednesday.
The study by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, in partnership with the Asia Society, also revealed that Americans remained “steady internationalists” and were not reverting to protectionism and isolationism in spite of deep discontent over the Iraq war and fears for job security.
Most strikingly, the poll – carried out in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the US in June and July – revealed a sense of confidence among Chinese and Indians in their countries’ destinies.
Analysts called it a landmark and complex study. While there was an acute feeling of distrust between nations, especially towards the US and the rise in Chinese military power, there was also a prevailing sense that a decline in US economic and military power in Asia would have a negative impact.
However, only 35 per cent of Chinese and 39 per cent of Indians said they trusted the US to act responsibly in the world.
Large majorities in India and China said they believed a conflict over energy resources was likely in Asia. Majorities also said countries had a right to go to war to ensure adequate energy supplies.
These themes were reflected in the top foreign policy goals set by the Chinese – protecting jobs for Chinese, promoting economic growth and securing energy supplies. Combating international terrorism came fourth.
Ranking what they saw as critical threats to their interests, the Chinese first listed Aids, avian flu and other potential epidemics followed by disruption in energy supplies and global warming. Instability or conflict on the Korean peninsula was ranked ninth.
Protecting jobs was also ranked the most important foreign policy goal by Americans. Then followed preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and combating terrorism. Helping to spread democracy abroad came bottom, in 14th place.
All shared strong concern over global warming and a desire for significant steps to be taken.
Chinese see their country catching up with the US in terms of global influence within 10 years. Indians, whom panellists said seemed to have a greater sense of exuberance, placed their country second behind the US in global influence at present.
Some 55 per cent of Americans believed the US would be surpassed or equalled as a global power over the next 50 years. This view was shared by 68 per cent of South Koreans, 53 per cent of Indians and 60 per cent of Chinese. Only 29 per cent of Americans said the US should work actively to limit the growth of China’s power.
Marshall Bouton, president of the Chicago Council, said Americans had a sophisticated view of the benefits and costs of globalisation. “But tensions are growing in that assessment”, he said. |
