Election 2008 Creating Record Number of Democrats
Saturday, May 03, 2008
The ongoing race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.
During the month of April, 41.4% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats. Just 31.4% said they were Republicans and 27.2% were not affiliated with either major party.
April was the third straight month that the number of Democrats topped 41%. Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002 (see history from January 2004 to present).
The partisan gap now shows the Democrats with a 10.0 percentage point advantage over the Republicans. That’s the largest advantage ever recorded by either party. In fact, before these past three months, the previous high was a 6.9 point percentage point edge for the Democrats in December 2006.
The 10.0 percentage point advantage for Democrats is up from a 2.1 point advantage in December.
The gains for the Democrats were especially strong among women. In April, 45% of women considered themselves to be Democrats, up from 40% in December. The number of women identifying themselves as Republicans fell from 33% to 30% during that same time frame.
Among men, 36% were Republicans in December and 33% said the same in April. The number of men who are Democrats increased from 33% in December to 37% in March.
In December, the GOP held a 40% to 31% advantage among White voters. That’s down to a 37% to 35% advantage in April.
Democrats now hold an advantage among all age groups. Among the youngest voters, those under 30, the Democrats have a twelve-point advantage. Just 28% of those young voters say they’re Republicans while 40% identify with the Democrats.
Among those who earn less than $60,000 a year, the Democrats enjoy an eighteen-point advantage among retired Americans—45% to 27%. The GOP has a slight advantage among those who earn more than $60,000 annually.
These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error for the sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.
In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.
In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows the race for the White House remains close. In the Electoral College, the race is a Toss-Up. Democrats continue to have a significant advantage on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports and lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
rasmussenreports.com |
