Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 281.53

-3.7%

1:11 PM EST

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To: Henry Eichorszt who wrote (27492)	1/1/1999 2:06:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	of 70976

>>The time to sell, he says, will be when lead times in orders from semiconductor makers start to shorten and plant utilization rates start to drop.<< plant utilization in korea is about 65%-75%. how low should they go before selling - or not buying? his "analysis presumes that utilization is up and it isn't. the current pricing increases in dram is merely mfrd through temporarily reducing plant utilization. this doesn't include micron's plans to significantly ramp their output and they are a big, big player and will directly impact market pricing. the koreans, already at 75% utiliztion - best case scenario - are also reducing cost per bit by ramping output. smells like a continuing glut to me. everyone bought this guy's ideas hook, line and sinker. would somebody take off his rose colored glasses ;-)

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