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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Big Dog who started this subject11/28/2003 10:54:22 AM
From: quehubo   of 206182
 
Lehman's weekly analysis of injections appears only to be a few weeks away from having Driscoll change his bearish call. From estimating 3-4 bcfpd of excess over the 5 year average he is down to 1.2 bcfpd over the last 4 weeks. He is calculating a ratio of 1.5 bcf to gwhdd now and storage ending at 1,100 bcf. With the weak start we have had so far I see a ratio of 1.55 already. This ratio should become more bullish as we start averaging higher weekly HDD.

Either he is doing plain sloppy work or he (Lehman) have an agenda. I have seen better work from him in the past.

Driscoll's own data (NOAA & EIA) shows that last Winter gas weighted HDD was 1% more than normal. The ratio of demand days to change in storage was 1.65 bcf to 1 gas weighed HDD. Assuming a normal Winter with 1% less HDD we still draw down 2,400 bcf from storage by April 1.

There wont be no GOM deepwater ties coming in with large new supplies in Q1 04 compared to Q1 03. Lets see where the weather takes us.
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