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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (274)6/29/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum   of 19219
 
J.T., i guess the most likely outcome is a 1/4 point hike and a continued bias toward tightening. AG seems determined to slow the economy down, and the only way to do that is to bring the stock market down. i'm also an adherent of the theory that the Fed will have to act before Y2K concerns become too great. as AG has said, 'the economy is stretched in a number of dimensions'. and you are right that the Fed sans Rivlin looks a lot more vigilant. the exuberant optimism displayed in the market right now is hard to justify under such circumstances. had the market been nervous and weak ahead of the FOMC i would have been inclined to look for a relief rally thereafter. but as things stand right now, there seems to be no worry at all; all you hear is what the market is supposed to have 'priced in' already. the strongest argument in favor of the bulls is the oversold condition of the bond market, and the historical evidence that suggests that a first rate hike does not necessarily stop a bull market in it's tracks. i have been looking for a blow-off to come for quite some time and i will not exclude the possibility that we get one. however, a blow-off phase usually starts when optimism is at a low ebb and most people look for a correction or a bear market.

regards,

hb
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