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Technology Stocks : Systemsoft Inc. (SYSF)

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To: Tim Oliver who wrote (273)8/26/1996 4:41:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy   of 3529
 
Re: Hype factor

<<Last month, you could have bought PTEC for less than 10% more than Intel paid 5 months after Intel got in!! While SYSF is way over-hyped, PTEC is way under-hyped.>>

You could've bought PTEC for 12 3/4 for a short time during one day in July. PTEC volume is so low that a few sellers in a market panic drive the price down 30% in a week. The contrast in trading volume is amazing. High P/E stocks have a way of dropping 1/2 their value in a day. Even a blue chip like Informix with 1/2 of SYSF's P/E dropped in half one day.

I think the July panic is going to repeat and a lot of high P/E stocks will crash. Netscape is due for a fall.

<<Is SYSF product better than the others?>>

I don't think any system software product written in assembly is so complicated that somebody can get a technical edge over the competition. Pheonix got the lead in BIOS because they were first and built volume. SYSF and PTEC split PCMCIA because both companies jumped in early and had good reputations. There's so much competition that nobody will get big volume and profits.

<<What if Microsoft fixes their own software and puts these guys all out of business?>>

I don't think Microsoft cares, because the market is too small and there's no threat to their OS franchise. They'll worry about IBM (Lotus) and Netscape, not the assembly language companies. Microsoft likes to have lots of small companies around to fix their mistakes, because it reduces their development costs and helps keep Clinton off their backs.
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