That's a good sound-bite, and that's it: "Doerr said that the internet is presently like 10 milliseconds after the Big Bang."
Remember how the Y2K "experts" like Peter DeJager became "intellectual giants" all because they made very dire predictions on the calamitous disaster facing us when the calendars turn to year 2000?
Funny, but I haven't heard much about Y2K hysteria lately. All the Y2K nuts have slowly but steadily slipped into the shadows. Some of these "experts" who touted DeJager have even disappeared from SI: Look up the profile of one "Mad Monk", who rode many a Y2K moonshot up to the seemingly endless blue sky, whipping his followers into a frenzy, encouraging untold numbers to buy stocks near peaks, stocks that have declined and declined and declined since.
A few extra gifts purchased online for Christmas doesn't make for a change in our way of life.
These stocks will *not* repeat in 1999 what they have accomplished in 1998, IMO. It's not that they *couldn't*, or that such would be impossible. Surely not. I just don't think that revenues will be ramping in 1999 for the internuts like they have in 1998. Lighting just doesn't strike in the same place very often.
I might be mistaken, but I find it difficult to imagine YHOO worth as much as Boeing Aircraft Co., yet that's what it would be worth if it doubled from here. Advertising banners, tiny "transaction fees" for consumers ordering Barbie dolls et al from merchants hosted through Yahoo's site...it's not going to provide enough revenue to support current market cap.
As for AMZN, they will eventually trade below $30 (post-split), probably closer to $20 within a year, a year and a half at most. Like always, there will be herds of bulls denying reality the whole ride down. I actually agree somewhat with Glenn, in re that AMZN will at least have some harrowing financial times, perhaps will have to reorganize and regroup, much like what happened to Netscape. Amazon can't see the tidal wave of competition about to hit them, which is such a familiar scene. IOM, ASND, etc. denials all the way down. |
