Oil already down another $4 today to $63 in foreign markets. And yes Bill, you called the top too - good job.
-----------------------------------------------------
He Called the Peak in Oil, Now Bleier Sees $50 Crude in Early '09
Posted Oct 23, 2008 11:58am EDT by Aaron Task in finance.yahoo.com
"The commodity trade is over...oil is going to $100 per barrel."
Or so declared Scott Bleier, president of CreateCapital.com, on July 18. What sounded like an outrageous prediction then turned out to be too conservative as commodities, led by oil and gold, have crashed.
Today, Bleier predicts oil will fall to as low as $50 a barrel in early 2009, and, short of turning off the spigots entirely, he doesn't think OPEC -- which is meeting in Vienna this week -- can do much about it.
"There was too much money allocated" to commodities and now "that trade is coming unwound," he said, reiterating a prior view that speculation (vs. fundamentals) was entirely responsible for the rally -- or at least its final phase earlier this year.
As for commodity-related stocks, like Exxon, Freeport-McMoran and Potash, Bleier thinks they're likely to bounce in conjunction with the broader market as those same hedge funds seek to salvage what has been an abysmal year, to date. Long-term investors would be wise to sell on any such bounce, he adds. |
