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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?
ERIC 9.835+3.7%Jan 7 3:59 PM EST

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To: Raymond who wrote (2771)2/12/1999 3:24:00 AM
From: Clarksterh   of 5390
 
Raymond - QCOM interest is to get as much licensing money as possible.

First, I agree absolutely that this is about money, but probably not about licensing money. Do you really think that Qualcomm is going to make their numbers from license fees? Currently they make much more Gross Profit from sales than from license fees. I think that their real goal is not to give up the lead that they have in 3g systems. They will probably start deployment of CDMA-2000 in 2000, several years ahead of W-CDMA, but if there is a separate W-CDMA with the backing of Europe no one will come. The service providers will wait until the W-CDMA vendors have caught up - especially with Ericsson whispering in their ear as they are wont to do and are especially good at. (Note that this is not a slam at Ericsson, just a comment on their style. I don't happen to like it, but in some sense it is good business.)

They [NTT] need to synchronize without GPS.
So then they decided to go for asynchronous basestations.You use systemframenumbers and timingcells between the basestationcontrollers and the basestations to synchronize.This is a technical advancement but it will not give QCOM any money so they are very much against it.I think this is one of the big problems with QCOM:s position.


Qualcomm has said publicly that they want synchronization for two reasons - higher performance and backwards compatibility. However, they have also stated that it doesn't need to be GPS if that is a problem. And the paper NTT just presented alludes to that kind of compromise being in work and probably acceptible.

Clark

PS Note that Qualcomm's only license fee requirement stated so far is that it should be accretive. Given a base 5 or 6 times larger than CDMAOne that means that they are probably willing to cut the license fees by 3 or 4 times from their current levels. Hardly scandalous.
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