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Pastimes : NFL Prediction Contest

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To: Susie924 who wrote (2774)1/29/2015 11:58:08 AM
From: JimisJim  Read Replies (1) of 9756
 
I think that comparison is going to prove temporary... the league structure/rules makes it really, really, really difficult to build a "dynasty" organization like the Yankees... we saw unbelievable parity this last season, and yes, NE and Seattle both seem like they were the best teams on a consistent basis, but neither one is unbeatable or as dominant as older dynastic teams once were (Steelers in '70s, 49ers in '80s, Cowboys in '90s)... for the last 10 years especially (since 2005), we've seen no team dominate, i.e., there have only been two teams since 2005 who have won 2 super bowls (Steelers and Giants) and those teams are nowhere near as good today as they were when they won... if NE wins this one, they would be just the 3rd team to win 2 SBs in the past 11 years...

Part of it is the draft process, but an even bigger part is the scheduling... the better you do almost always guarantees you have a harder schedule the next season that teams who were big losers... eventually, that catches up (e.g., even the Lions have arisen from the grave going from perennial losers to contenders in the past 10 years).

The Yankees have a big advantage as an organization over NFL teams... they have their own TV/CATV outlets and other revenue generators that give them outsized income to play with compared to say a Cincinnati team... year after year... and the Yankees ownership has shown that they will spend whatever it takes to try to contend every year -- doesn't always work out, but works often enough that their revenues continue to be high year after year such that if they screw up one year, they can easily rebuild and contend again the following season.

In the NFL, the revenue streams are "shared" more with all other teams such that no single team has a very very large financial advantage. As such, the key to winning consistently in the NFL is having a very good (and lucky) GM and coaching staff as well as more than a little luck during the games... i.e., luck is a much bigger factor for NFL organizations than for the Yankees.

In the short run, I'll concede that in terms of consistency and success, NE does indeed resemble the Yankees somewhat. However, the Yankees will continue to be regular contenders year after year after year into the future, while NE may start having trouble finding and retaining enough top talent -- and may encounter a stretch of bad luck in personnel and/or in games that sees them decline. IMO, NE has as good a chance as any current NFL club to continue appearing in the post season, but I don't think they can win say 4 of the next 10 SBs the way previous dynastic NFL teams did seemingly on a regular basis just 2-3 decades ago. The NFL's "parity religion" stacks the deck against such an outcome -- there will be outliers and maybe NE will be one of them, or Seattle in the NFC, but I still keep coming back to the point that we have not seen a true dynasty in the NFL since the Cowboys, the 49ers before them, the Steelers before them, etc. all the way back to Green Bay's dominance,

Last year, Seattle looked like it would be unbeatable into the future and yet they barely beat some teams and lost to some very average teams before making the SB. I don't think anyone would argue this is the best NE team/roster in the past 10 years, but it was good enough to get to the SB. Both teams required some on-field luck to get to the SB, along with their talented rosters. In addition, both teams (like them or not) demonstrated they have above average coaching and organizations that resulted in assembling the best possible rosters that translated (along with a bit of luck) into enough wins to make the SB. And to be sure, some organizations in the NFL seem to consistently find the better coaches and players despite having a big disadvantage in drafting and scheduling.

The Yankees, if they want to, can just go out and buy the best players and coaches, poaching proven talent from small market teams with ease once the budding future stars emerge and then hit free agency at the small market teams. NFL teams don't have that advantage for the most part.
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