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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Walker who wrote (2783)	2/20/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Wizard	of 3033

>>their space is confined to the very large organizations. Good spot to be when the market is still unsaturated. >>This space is becoming crowded as SAP, Oracle, and others add or buy capability. This is the big risk for Siebel, for sure. However, Siebel is the only front-office company with a chance to be a very large company. ONXS can be a successful investment in the near-term but if Siebel gets beat up by SAP etc... then how is ONXS going to make it. Once upon a time, low-hanging fruit was all over the place but that is changing. BTW, the reason SAP is going to this market is because of the long-term opportunity. Siebel is a very tough company to compete against and has a clear advantage as early market-share leaders. If they can execute, SEBL stock will be a very successful investment. When I figure out when they will stop beating estimates, it will be time to short this stock but until then, it should be TRADED from the long-side, IMO. (I recently sold most of my stock in the low $40's and looking to buy it back sometime).

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