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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation
VNTV 77.60+2.6%Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Walker who wrote (2783)2/20/1999 6:55:00 PM
From: Lee L.   of 3033
 
Siebel does have a lot of momentum, however, their space is confined to the very large organizations.

This is exactly where a company wants to be. The margins are obscene.

This space is becoming crowded as SAP, Oracle, and others add or buy capability. In the meantime, VNTV, ONYX and others move their products up to compete with Siebel.

Same as two years ago. All of these companies continue to prove that they can't execute in this space. SAP's attempts with K&V have been pathetic. Oracle's performance in applications has been worse than pathetic. VNTV doesn't know how to consistently sell to the high-end. They have some top-notch marquee customers, but they aren't winning the high-end business on a consistent basis. After having negotiated with VNTV myself, I now understand why.

Siebel ... takes a long time to install, is expensive to purchase, and is harder to use then the competition.

I think that you're misinformed, but even if you aren't -- so what; who cares. SAP defined and continues to dominate the ERP market. It will probably go down as the the most expensive, most difficult-to-implement package in in history. Regardless, I wish I had purchased SAP shares 5 years ago.

As soon as they do not have the marketspace to themselves, their margins will start to erode. then we will see how much someone is willing to pay for their stock.

I see no signs of that happening now. These same statements applied two years ago. You can invest in losers and winner-wanna-be's. Since I believe in the potential of this market, I'm sticking with the winners.
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