Frontier integration
BARNETT SITE
By Sean Meade
We've got a new glossary entry in preparation for Great Powers:
Frontier IntegrationGlobalization has entered into an extended period of frontier integration—as in, economic and network integration of previously off-grid or poorly connected societies. The historical example par excellence is the settling and taming of the American West after the Civil War. The chief activities are infrastructure building, the extension of social networks and rule of law, state building, the generation of permanent and pervasive security, the squelching of insurgencies and criminal mafias, and the formal marketization of existing and new economic activities—including both "exploiting" the labor of, and selling to, the so-called bottom of the pyramid population. America's frontier integration was continental-sized, involving millions. Today's project targets the globe's entire Gap, involving billions in so-called emerging or frontier economies. It also involves the impoverished rural regions of New Core pillars such as China and India. In general, neither Americans nor Europeans will lead this frontier-integration effort. We price out too high. Instead, the frontier-integrators of the age will be mostly Asians, who know better how to jump-start development in these harsher environments. America's role can be to mentor and enable the integrators, helping especially on security, or we can sit the whole thing out and hope for the best in terms of resulting political outcomes.
Globalized downturn and recovery
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
STORY: Globalization Fueled Downturn; Will It Aid Recovery?, by Tom Gjelten, NPR, October 24, 2008
Nice, clear piece with good quotes from Jeff Sachs. Gist: globalization's connectivity means the financial meltdown in US rapidly transmitted elsewhere, but also raises the likelihood that the recovery (we're first in, and likely first out) will spread similarly as well. We're getting at that point when it seems safe to declare this crisis a true system perturbation in the sense that many things are being revealed about globalization, both bad and good. That new knowledge is likely to lead to a lot of new system rules, especially to govern inter-market activities, or those money flows between national financial markets. Globally, we're like the U.S. before the Great Depression triggered all our new rules and organizations (like the SEC). There is no global SEC, but there needs to be one. (Thanks: David Blair)
Into Africa
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
ARTICLE: Defense Contractors' Growing African Business, By Lawrence Delevingne, BusinessWeek, October 23, 2008
No surprise, as most of the SysAdmin work (especially the local training) will be done by private contractors.
Global economy info graphic
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
GOOD Sheet: It's the Economy, Stupid!, GOOD, October 16-22, 2008
I won't pretend to be smart enough to decipher all the meaning. I do think it's interesting, though, how things begin to change for us structurally in the 1970s and then take off in the 1980s. I think there was a small-world global economy (West) until the 70s, and then it began changing with OPEC, etc, and then we saw the great expansion across the 1980s. I feel like our spending became almost a sort of implicit Marshall Plan for the post-Cold War world, sustaining a lot of development, but that now we've run into two structural realities: 1) the global economy is too big to rely on just the dollar as a reserve currency (we can't spend enough to provide more, plus there needs to be automatic balancers, like the Euro is becoming and like an Asian variant must become); and 2) there is a sizable non-US global economy emerging (although it's hardly decoupled from us, as the current crisis shows). Add those two together, and I think you see a profound evolution in the works. I believe we have reached the limits of our ability to dominate/sustain the global economy, meaning great power cooperation will be forced upon us whether we want it or not. This is a theme of Great Powers.
Russia: break out the sickles!
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
EMERGING MARKET REPORT: "The Business Boom Unfolding Down on the Russian Farm: Investors are pouring billions into agribusiness—and trying to reverse decades of Soviet mismanagement," by Jason Bush, BusinessWeek, 20 October 2008.
One sector looking up long term for Russia is ag. Lots of arable land not being used, and Russia is already a big global source (one of four) for net grain exports. Plus, yields in Russia stand about 30% of that in the advanced West—hence the investment payoff opportunity. The UN says Russia has 480,000 square miles of arable land. That's twice the size of France and 8% of the world total. And we're talking truly Black Earth, which most people in the world have never seen. I, however, grew up 40 miles from a town called Black Earth. No kidding. And yeah, the earth there was like something most people can only buy in a bag at a lawn store. Obviously, a lot of local and external big ag companies look to take advantage. Already, Russia's grain harvest is up 50m tons over the last five years, growing from 75 to 125. This is why John Deere's doing nicely. Amazingly enough, with all that potential, Russian ag land costs about 10% of that in France and 20% of that in Brazil. thomaspmbarnett.com |
