Friede Goldman: FGI (formerly FGII) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Friede Goldman: FGI (formerly FGII)

FGI 9.000

+1.1%

3:10 PM EST

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To: Rosemary who wrote (27)	2/13/1999 2:44:00 AM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) of 75

As far as earnings go, earnings estimates are woefully inaccurate 1 year in advance, much less two years out (I'm only showing 1 analyst estimating yr 2000). Given oil price uncertainty I view any long term forecast with skepticism. The uncertainty is the reason PE is currently so low. The estimates are guesses on the analyst's part, and certainly haven't had time to reflect the recent quarter. Bottom line: FGI has so much work they're turning down business. They can afford to only take the high margin stuff. Visibility is good with the backlog. In a distressed market they can look to acquire weaker cos. on the cheap. The gamble here in my view is that oil price will eventually rebound. I'm looking at a two to three year time frame and that's a good bet to me for a high ROI. Shane

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