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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Stephen who wrote (2801)3/13/2001 9:42:42 PM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Stephen,

I agree that today looked pretty good on a number of fronts, and I also have to agree that the former high-flyers seem very washed out (with the exception of a few like JNPR, CIEN and CHKP, whose fundamentals are holding up anyway). I really like today's action following yesterday's; we may finally have run out of weak hands. I also like the fact that Chambers said everything he's been saying for the last two months -- except investors focused on his long-term growth projections. Have investors finally started to ignore the bad news in the former high-flyers, or stated another way, have expectations finally come down enough?

Even though it has spread to the S&P, this may be almost entirely a tech bear. Techs were something like 40% of the S&P at their peak; they fall 63%, and you get a 23% drop in the S&P; sounds about right. S&P earnings will fall 3-5% in the first half of the year; take out tech earnings (or lack thereof), and S&P earnings are up. Just a thought, not an idea I'm wedded to.

Not sure the Trannies don't matter; Dow theory says that healthy Industrials and Transports are key to the health of the economy as a whole. Something to keep an eye on... Would be nice to see the market move in lock-step to the upside for once; that would be something we haven't seen in years, and might even make it safe to hold overnight. ;-)

Best,

Paul
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