For me, NWLIA was a buy in late 2002 when stock dropped on no particular reason that I remember. I'm still holding those shares. ANAT too. My story: Buy under bv, wait to sell above bv. Sometimes this works. Sometimes it does not.
CGI is the dominant auto insurer in Massachusetts. I've held a position for many years, have sold it out recently. SAFT was a 2nd or 3rd in auto in Mass., not is well managed (imo) as CGI was (CGI also the AAA Club choice). Apparently SAFT was attractive for their managers' expertise in managing SAFT's float (junior Buffetts). Two things have happened: The hot-shot managers don't seem to be getting press lately, don't seem to be doing so well or have become much more conservative. Significantly, the Mass. auto market is opening up to competition as state insurance rules are changing, and this has or will affect the earnings of the locals - CGI, SAFT. This my understanding of the situation anyway. I sold both, but reentered SAFT only because stock dropped below stated bv.
One that's below stated bv that hasn't worked for me is CNO. It's dropped, and I've added more recently.
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Others that might be looked at are ORI (p/bk =.94) with its very excellent record of increasing dividends, and the GE spinoff GNW (p/bk =1.01 now). I have shares of GNW and an exploratory few shares of ORI. I've been looking at PL this weekend: I find its p/bk @1.23 relatively low (relative to its history), but not quite so low as to hook me in.
While this method is simple - simplistic - for buying/selling insurance stocks, it's not of course the only or maybe even best way to evaluate such stocks. I'm attracted to low p/e insurance stocks: I have ZNT for example. I started a small buy of BER on Friday. AFG's had a history of insider buying that's eventually resulted in a stock price rise: After seeing recent insider buys at AFG, I too have added to my position, hoping history repeats.
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All jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times...especially about insurance stocks. |
