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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: pcyhuang who wrote (28101)9/17/2007 5:25:50 PM
From: MCsweet  Read Replies (1) of 78744
 
Pcyhuang,

One of my pet peeves is people who post their ideas, but then don't really listen or respond to others. These boards should be about dialog IMO.

You didn't respond to my points or to Wallace Rivers. Since you raised NFI on this board to begin with, I think you should consider doing so. Referring us to you contrarian board is not as helpful to me unless you can refer to specific links that responds to my points.

I do see on your board a link showing that NFI paper has been performing better than some of the other subprime paper issuers. That is good to know, but will that continue? Defaults moved up from 2.62% in July to 4.41% in August.
How about the fact that the current NFI loan balances are now greater than the original loan balance (option arms???, higher future defaults???).

Also, could NFI be subject to margin calls and a liquidity crunch even if its loans are not that bad? That is what happened to AHM. What about the fact that the auditors question whether it will be a "going concern." For a stock like this, this kind of fundamental analysis is much important than technical indicators IMO.

Best of luck,
MC

PS: Looks like NFI is down 10-20% aftermarket on loss of REIT status. Pure coincidence, but just another example of why this stock is too risky for my blood.
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