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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: FaultLine who wrote (27899)	2/6/2004 2:17:35 AM
From: Dayuhan	of 793866

I've been reviewing how I got from Gulf War I to here. I’ve done that myself, on occasion. Looking back on the decisions made in days gone by, I find myself less inclined to criticize than some. The decision not to overthrow Saddam at the close of GW1 has been berated almost everywhere, but given the knowledge available at that time I’d still have to say it was probably the best available course. If a crystal ball had been available it might arguably have been better to do something different, but that could be said about many decisions (one example might be the decision to assist and encourage the deployment of foreign jihadis against the Russians in Afghanistan). It was a conservative decision by a conservative President, made in accordance with the policies and priorities of the day. It’s possible to regret that, but it’s hard to bring fault or blame over it. I’m also less inclined than many to blame the Clinton administration for not acting more decisively against Al Qaeda. There are limits to a President’s ability to conjure up political will, and the will was simply not there. An attack on Afghanistan would have been unacceptable to the populace and impossible to move through Congress: there would have been no support from Democrats and precious little among Republicans. Making the attempt and having it shot down would have been worse than not making it at all. Clinton did as much as he thought he could get away with on the basis of discretional authority. Given the minimal likelihood of any further authority being granted, that’s not unreasonable. It is possible that “black ops” or quiet Special Forces action might have been more effectively deployed. There would have been some understandable reluctance to go this route due to Mogadishu hangover, and the lack of confidence stemming from that event may have prevented action that might possibly have succeeded. It’s also likely that limited or questionable intelligence was a factor: even the best SF team is no better than the intel on which its operational planning is based. I’m not in a position to evaluate this, and neither is anyone else who wasn’t on the inside of the inside. It is easy to say, with hindsight, that Osama was determined to force a military response from the US and was going to keep upping the ante until he got one. It’s hard to fault people for not seeing that earlier when so many people here can’t see it even now. Even the most obvious conclusions are often rejected when they conflict with prior beliefs.

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