From John Maldin's newsletter:
Fire in the Hole
This week I read a sobering article on the situation in the Middle East. My
good friend, Gary Halbert, analyzed a private report by Stratfor.com, a
highly respected international research group. He quotes much of it in his
monthly newsletter. I have his permission to put it on my web site. For
those interested in this situation, I suggest you read it. (
www.2000wave.com/archivemain/halbertonisrael801.html )
I confronted a ranking GOP Congressman with the gist of this article this
week. He basically confirmed the seriousness of the situation. Stratfor.com
suggests that Israel is preparing to attack the Palestinian territories in
the near future. Other reports suggest Iraq is massing troops on the Jordan
border.
The situation is intractable. Last week, The Jerusalem Post reported that
the Palestinian Authority daily Al-Hayat al-Jadedah printed on its front
page that "the occupation is using naked women to hunt down intifada youth."
As serious news, they reported that a female Israeli soldier got on top of a
tank, began taking her clothes off "until she was nearly naked", and when
Palestinians came close enough to throw rocks, she pulled out a gun and
killed two and wounded nine in the crowd. (The old gun in the lingerie
trick. The Israeli's must have seen it on Austin Powers.)
If Palestinians would report or even believe such drivel, then they are too
far gone to consider reasonable negotiations. Arafat has clearly lost
control. He may be evil, but he is not stupid. He would not push Sharon this
far if he could control his people. Hamas and the other groups simply want a
war. They think world opinion will make Sharon give in. They are wrong.
IF Prime Minister Sharon should initiate a war during September/October, I
wonder what the results will be? Israel will win, of course. I doubt the
leaders of Egypt or Syria will want to get involved, as they would not
survive politically and maybe not physically if they lost a war with Israel,
as they almost surely would. Iraq might have to fight across Jordan, and
Israel would crush them when they arrived.
But even if the conflict remained "isolated", what would US response be?
What would Arab response be to any action we took? What would happen to the
price of oil? How would the markets react? I know, in light of the
blood-bath it would be, that thinking of our economy might sound
insensitive, but it could have repercussions far beyond Jerusalem.
2000wave.com |
