Clark,
How long has WCDMA been in trials? EV-DO? While I haven't actually been watching, my assumption based on your post is that EV-DO has been out in full up trials only 5 months.
The problem is that PR (Slides & Press Releases) and the reality of the requisite steps in maturing a technology get somewhat out of sync and sometimes what is referred to as a "commercial launch" for PR purposes should more properly be called a "commercial trial":
EV-DO was according to the slide that Irwin and Paul Jacobs were showing in November 2000 at various technology conferences going to be "commercially available" in Q4 2001 while the same slide showed 3GSM WCDMA going to be "commercially available" in 2003 ??? (Estimated).
At Cannes in February 2001, Clint McClellan, Qualcomm's Director of Strategic Marketing was quoted as saying:
"1xEV will be commercially deployed by the end of the year, and making money for operators in 2002".
EV-DO was officially "commercially launched" by SK Telecom on January 28, 2002 or so sayeth the press releases. :-)
At the Merrill Lynch Global Communications Conference in NYC in March 2002, Moonsoo Pyo, President and CEO of SK Telecom showed this slide:
Slide 12: EV-DO Handset Roll-out Plan on Track
• Testing underway
• Expected number of major vendors: 7
• EV- DO phones are color, have 40 polyphonic tones and video enabled
* Introduce EV-DO Services
-> Feb 2002: Notebook PCMCIA Card for Notebook PC
-> May 2002: Non-VOD Handset with 65K Color STN LCD and Camera
• Drive EV-DO Penetration
-> Jun 2002: VOD Handset with 260K Color TFT LCD and Camera
-> Aug 2002: Ultra Videophone with Enhanced Display and Large Memory
In April & May 2002 respectively, LGE and then launched the first EV-DO handsets and stated in their press releases that these would be in friendly users hands in May, and "commercially available" in late May or early June in time for the World Cup. They didn't make it. The LGE model hit shops in July and The Samsung models in August.
With good intentions by all, the technology simply takes time to mature, and to be widely deployed.
<< How long did CDMA2000 take to trial - I don't really remember but I'd guess at least 6 months) A year seems not unreasonable, but I would start to get antsy after that. >>
Again PR (Slides & Press Releases) and the reality of maturing a technology get somewhat out of sync.
SKT "commercially launched" 1xRTT on September 30, 2001 according to their press releases. For the next 4 months the Korean press (properly) referred to this as a "commercial trial", for the first 90 days only one handset model (SKT's) was available. 20,000 units were manufactured but only a handful were available day one and they were in friendly users hands. Samsung made one or two models available end of December or early January even though IS95B/IS95C handoff was not working well. IOT wasn't much of an issue with one infra supplier and 2 handset suppliers initially. Actually the technology matured remarkably quickly and by August 2001 things were in pretty full swing (in Korea - not elsewhere). In the US Verizon launched Verizon Express on a limited basis late 2001, PCS "nationwide" August 2002. IOT for more infra vendors and handset suppliers was involved and Verizon and PCS are still optimizing their networks.
... and so it goes.
With good intentions by all, the technology simply takes time to mature, and to be widely deployed and as investors we need to be mindful of that.
Dave Mock, the author of "Tapping into Wireless" recently made post to the Motley Fool Nokia thread that I think is very appropriate in this context:
boards.fool.com
The following clip is from a 10/18 WSJ by David pringle that was posted here:
Tony Milbourn, managing director of British handset designer TTP Communications PLC, says the WCDMA standard won't be completely finalized until "three or four" handset makers have their phones working well on networks from "three or four" different suppliers. "It could be one and a half to two years before everything is hunky-dory," he says.
The reality is, that is probably a rather realistic assessment and mass deployment and consequential royalty revenue from SE (as opposed to infra) to Qualcomm won't be particularly significant until then.
Best,
- Eric - |
