401k UPDATE - with DOW down around ~ 7,450 after the Fed meeting this afternoon, closed out the 2xS&P position (had closed out the 3x S&P late last week (and quickly had seller's remorse). Also took a small position in the FAZ right before the bell sounded as well today. At some point, I will go back and try to run a comparison how this swing trade would have panned out on a %by% of the new self-directed acc't v. the old 401k with its restrictions, i.e., 2xS&P etf v. large or mid cap fund over same time frame (actually, it should be enough to simply use the SPX since this is just for general academic comparisons).
Responding To Message #282 from Rutgers at 3/5/2009 10:16:15 AM
401k UPDATE - with DOW down around ~ 6,800 this morning,
and with the Bull to Bear ratio at an all time extreme level (~20% to 80%!) - took a small position in 3x in stocks again. Also took a 2x in equities yesterday. Stocks are definitely oversold, but oversold can become more oversold. At some point, there should be an explosion to the upside, but I may be too early. Stay tuned. [in edit, with the Dow already off almost another ~80+ pts since I purchased this morning, I was clearly too early - doh!]
Responding ToMessage #281 from Rutgers at 12/4/2008 11:07:43 AM
401k UPDATE - DOW closing at ~ 8,591 yesterday afternoon, and before the bell rung, I took the one-half that I had just moved into stocks two days ago - back off the table because ~450 points in a couple of days is not a bad number. I am playing with fire now because this is a much smaller move than the move I made last Friday. At some point soon, I think the plan admin may ding me for too many trades (only allowed a total of x per year). Again, I don't pretend to know where we go from here. Today looks like an up day, so this may not turn out to be a good move. Stay tuned.
Responding To Message #280 from Rutgers at 12/1/2008 6:04:26 PM
401k UPDATE - DOW closing at ~ 8,149 this afternoon, i.e., surpassing the two interim levels I described early this morning, I put one-half back into stocks before the bell rung this afternoon because I am back in at less than where I came in on October 27th. Nearly 680 points in one-day is one helluva day. I don't pretend to know where we go from here. Stay tuned.
Responding ToMessage #279 from Rutgers at 12/1/2008 7:57:43 AM
401k UPDATE - DOW closing at ~ 8,829 on Friday and having missed the last run from 8175 to ~9600 - with this recent straight run up from ~7500 to 8800, there could be some more room to run, but shouldn't be a lot more before a pull back to 8500 and perhaps 8200 area - I moved out of stocks before the bell on Friday.
Responding To Message #278 from Rutgers at 10/27/2008 6:55:30 PM
401k UPDATE - DOW closing at ~ 8,175 today and hemorrhaging blood on the Street as October fades to November...
and too busy to monitor on a daily basis... I moved what is close to one-third of the entire 401k from Stable Assets to Large and Midcap type funds just before the bell rang today. Sure this may not be the bottom - some are calling for DOW 6000 and some are suggesting the entire stock market could go down, I think not. This is as good a place as any to take a stand, which is that this move was made with a real long term horizon and expectation of DOW 12,000 - all within the next few years.
Responding ToMessage #274 from Rutgers at 1/17/2008 4:31:25 PM
401k Update -
With DOW closing at ~12,159, off more than another 600 points in less than two weeks or more than 1400 since X-Mas Eve when the DOW closed at 13,500, I moved another tranche from Bonds and Stable Asset funds to Large and Midcap funds just before the close. Barry R. posted an interesting chart about the percentage of NYSE stocks that closed ABOVE their 200 Day Moving Average. These levels have not been this low since the 1998 and 2002 market lows. So, we should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a short term bottom. ;)
While the risk is still very much in place for a capitulation, which come by early next week (recall, I cannot daytrade the 401k so a capitulation move could likely happen intraday), long term, and it is a 401k, this trade should be very profitable. Shorter term, and in the absence of a capitulation move, I am look for a strong move back to 12,800, if not 13,400. In addition, for the first time in a loong time, I modified the election portion to direct all new contributions directly to the large and mid cap funds as opposed to stable asset.
Responding To Message #273 from Rutgers at 1/4/2008 4:40:05 PM
401k Update -
With DOW closing at ~12,800, off more than 600 points over the last five trading days, I moved another tranche from Bond fund to Midcap fund just before the close. We certainly didn't have a Santa Rally and this could be the just the beginning of a year-long bear mkt, but there is also a lot of negativity out there right now, so a bounce may be coming or at least I think a bounce is coming.
Responding To Message #272 from Rutgers at 12/12/2007 9:03:09 AM
401k Update -
With DOW off almost 300 pts on the day to close at ~13,432, I moved a tranche out of Stable Asset funds to Largecaps yesterday just before the close. While this move appears to be mostly flat, I want to be in the market on December 12th in case there is a Santa rally and/or January effect. I would have been in at much lower prices, but the restrictions on # of trades and trading at EOD are a killer to the 401k.
Responding To Message #271 from Rutgers at 9/4/2007 5:10:50 PM
401k Update -
With DOW closing at ~13,449, I moved out of the MidCap funds to Foreign Bonds today at the close. So, I captured a move from 12,846 to 13,449 or ~ 600 pts. DOW could rocket on to new highs, but I am mindful of the following: Sept is tradtionally worst month of the year (of course, that d/n happen last year!); 1st day of the month runup (worked as expected); Oct aka crash-month - I think I may have an opportunity to buy back in later for less.
Responding To Message #269 from Rutgers at 8/17/2007 10:05:34 AM
401k Update -
Not being able to make an intra-day trade really, really hurts in the 401K. I would have been all over the minus 300 point move yesterday afternoon. Nevertheless, the snap-back rally off the lows was very powerful and caused me to move a tranche from the Stable Asset Fund to a MidCap fund [in edit - DOW closed at 12,846 today] . Obviously, I had no idea that the Fed would cut [the discount] interest rate by a full 50 basis points this AM. Hopefully, this will cause a mini-bull run instead of a gap'n crap. As I write this, DOW is up ~ 185pts, but it was up well over 300 earlier. In any event, these are interesting times.
Responding ToMessage #259 from Rutgers at 10/11/2006 10:08:59 AM
Executive Summary: In terms of the 401k, we are onto new highs and I am getting more and more tempted to short the indexes, but the question is do the bulls make a run for 12k first. My thought is that they might, but I also feel very comfortable that shorting the mkt here around 11,850 would also prove to be a good trade in the future.
Responding ToMessage #257 from Rutgers at 9/4/2006 4:45:52 PM
401 K update - - made a new move before last Friday's close
note to self - made this move via WiFi
DOW closed at ~ 11,464 on Friday. Since we are now in Sept., I want to be out of long funds for the historically weakest month of each year. Fortunately, I got lucky and we had the proverbial mutual-fund- first-day-of-the-month with a real nice runup. Even though I think the DOW could still try to make (or break) a double top from the spring high, I will take the scalp here for almost 250 points that the DOW is up since the last transaction and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. I am now back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #255 from Rutgers at 8/4/2006 2:21:34 PM
401 K update - foiled again! After seeing the ramp-up this AM, I decided I would put my orders in later this afternoon for an EOD move *if* the mkt cooperated, which I thought had a good chance of dumping...and, of course, I return a few hours later to see the rally go the other way. Damn, the mkt is a mischievous mistress, as my old pal Slocum was found of saying. If I was brighter, I should have thought about shorting the QQQs given my gut feeling that this was not gonna last...
Responding ToMessage #243 from Rutgers at 5/17/2006 4:37:28 PM
401 K update - made a new move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,206 this afternoon. Much to my chagrin, I indeed made a premature move despite my rather eerily accurate prediction for the Dow. Now, at the time of my last post on this subject, I was expecting an early May swoon. However, it went the other way.
Since the Dow was sitting around 11,700 only last week, I see this large move down as going too far too fast. Thus, I went back into equities before EOD. Recall, I am bound to EOD trades only in the 401k. This is a little dangerous b/c the momentum is all-down right now (trend is your friend), so I am only looking for a little reprieve via a snap-back bounce. Once again...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #223 from Rutgers at 4/5/2006 4:24:28 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,239 this afternoon. So, since we are in April and I want to be out of long funds before tax day, I got out before EOD. Even though I think the DOW could still bust out to the 11,700 range, I will take the scalp here for the 130 points that the DOW is up since last Friday (up every day so far in this new Quarter) and move ~90% out of the long funds to the stable assets. Now, I am back to mostly cash and bonds.
Responding To Message #218 from Rutgers at 3/31/2006 4:22:40 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at ~ 11,109 this afternoon. This was not antipicated when I went got out of all long funds two weeks ago. But, with the Dow down more than 100 pts since then (and, btw, I did fail to call the top, but I wasn't really trying to call the top inasmuch as I am restricted to EOD calls...besides I am still ahead by catching it on this side of the trade).
I went back long at EOD primarily for two reasons: first, studies have shown that the first trading day of each month is historically strong due to in-flows and second, mkt held up much better than I expected during the last two weeks...so maybe we can get a bounce back up next week. Don't misunderstand, I am of the school of thought that believes in the four-year cycle lows and when combined with the absence of a 10% move down in close to three years...I gotta believe that 10% move to the downside is likely before the end of October...
so...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines.
Responding To Message #202 from Rutgers at 3/15/2006 4:36:37 PM
401 K update - made a move before EOD
DOw closed at 11,210 this afternoon. The last move - go to primarily all long - was made on Dec. 9th when the DOW closed at 10,778. So, this move was good for more than 400 pts on the Upside. I think it is time to protect profits inasmuch as 16 of the last 19 weeks after March exp. have been down weeks...I truly hope that the DOW's run continues b/c I want to unwind a few long positions and perhaps short the S&P if it does go higher before end of this week.
Responding To Message #134 from Rutgers at 12/9/2005 4:25:43 PM
401 K update - made a move
DOw closed at 10,778 this afternoon. On Nov. 29th, I made my last move when the DOw closed at 10,888. Since the odds (76% historical ave.) favor next week as an up week ala Santa Rally, I moved the funds long again from ~cash. So, one to look at this move is that I have pocketed more than 100 pts, but my goal was to capture a bigger move. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks.
Responding To Message #130 from Rutgers at 11/29/2005 4:49:57 PM
Since some readings are saying that the mkt hasn't been this frothy in a bullish way since 2001, I figure it may be time for a sizable pull back. My 401 K trades, as most of you know, are tied to extreme overbought/oversold conditions. So far, this system has worked pretty well although there could be improvements. Anyway, based upon this data, I moved a nice portion from MidCap to SA fund. Now, ideally, I would love to see a 2 or 300 pt pullback w/i next week. Then, I would turnaround and reverse course, but we'll have to see how this plays out for now. If she d/n pullback here, and moves on to Dow 11K, then I will likely move the rest of the equities to bonds or stable assets.
Responding To Message #69 from Rutgers at 6/24/2005 4:20:21 PM
401 k - made yet another new move at EOD
With the Dow closing just under 10,300, I moved another slug from SA fund to the FA Fund.
I have one more big slug I could move, but I prefer to put on my rally cap at this point. |
