There's nothing more appealing in politics than a storybook ending.
THE FIX BLOG
And so, the idea that Caroline Kennedy might be appointed by New York Gov. David Paterson to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate, the same chamber in which her late father -- John F. Kennedy -- served and the same seat her uncle -- Robert Kennedy -- held, is drawing huge amounts of attention.
ABC News's Jonathan Karl reported today that Kennedy and Paterson have talked about the opening and cited "sources" who insist she is seriously considering it.
Our own conversations with New York politicos in the know suggest that Caroline Kennedy is genuinely interested in the Senate but express puzzlement about how deep that interest runs. The sources also note that Paterson is notoriously unpredictable and largely keeps his own counsel -- two factors that make predicting who he will pick nearly impossible.
Why not Kennedy? We return to our basic formulation about her as laid out in our handicapping of the field of potential appointees: she has NEVER expressed any interest in public life, much less elected office. For those who cite her work on the vice presidential vetting committee for Obama, we remind you that her role was as behind-the-scenes as you can get in such a high-profile job.
Is it possible that the Obama campaign coupled with the illness of her uncle Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) has made Caroline Kennedy rethink her opposition to elected office? Maybe. But, as Ben Smith (the oracle of New York politics) points out, whoever gets this appointment will not only have to run in a 2010 special election but also again in 2012 for the full six-year term. Kennedy's last name and national celebrity would lessen the fundraising burden but she would still need to spend the next four years of her life running for office.
Here are our latest odds on the appointment -- sans Rep. Nita Lowey and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who have taken their names out of consideration in recent days:
5-1: Andrew Cuomo -- Chatter about Cuomo appears to be picking up steam of late, probably due to the fact that he checks the most boxes. He carries a legendary last name, would have no problem raising the money and has the résumé (former Cabinet secretary, current state attorney general) to recommend him.
6-1: Kirstin Gillibrand -- Paterson has made clear he would like to pick someone from Upstate and someone who represents the diversity of the state. Enter Gillibrand who represents an Albany-area congressional seat and would mark a natural evolution from Clinton in the Senate. Gillibrand's problems? She is very young (won't turn 42 until Tuesday), isn't the famous face some New Yorkers want out of their senator, and represents a district that Democrats would struggle to hold on to if she was to vacate it.
15-1: Thomas Suozzi -- The buzz around Suozzi has soured over the past 10 days. He still has strong ties to Paterson, a base of support in the battleground of Long Island and the ability to raise tens of millions of dollars. But, has his moment passed?
20-1: Caroline Kennedy -- Count us skeptical (see above) but our sense from New York politicos is that she is genuinely considering the job. If Kennedy wants it, it seems like it would be hers for the asking.
25-1: Reps. Steve Israel/Brian Higgins -- Both Israel and Higgins would be geographic picks. Higgins has a base in western New York while Israel is strong on Long Island. But, for a governor who has emphasized diversity so strongly, is a white male not named Cuomo or Suozzi a real option?
30-1: Jerry Nadler -- Nadler, who has held the New York City-based 8th district, since 1992 is the darkhorse in the field. Nadler is unquestionably bright and a serious policy thinker; he also has a very liberal voting record that could jeopardize his ability to win a statewide race.
45-1: Carolyn Maloney -- A newcomer to the speculation, Maloney netted the endorsements of the National Organization of Women and Feminist Majority this week. She is clearly trying to stake a claim as the female heir to the Clinton legacy. Most people we talk to are skeptical it will work.
50-1: Reps. Greg Meeks/Nydia Velasquez -- Both members are interested in the seat and no one who knows New York politics thinks they have a real chance at the appointment.
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