May 19, 2008, 6:00 am
Gay Marriage Ruling Helps McCain, Hurts Obama
blogs.wsj.com
Peter Brown, assisant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, specializes in polling of electoral battleground states, including Ohio and Florida. Click here for Brown’s full bio.
Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign, facing the most anti-Republican mood since Watergate, may have finally caught a break. It’s not enough to change the election by itself, but the California Supreme Court may have handed him an issue from which he can profit.
By overturning a ban on gay marriage that was approved by 61% of California voters, the judges have helped revive an emotional issue that seems likely to work to Sen. McCain’s benefit and to Sen. Barack Obama’s detriment.
Of course, much depends on just how the Republican presidential candidate plays the issue. Until now Sen. McCain has opposed gay marriage, but also has been against a federal ban on such unions. His immediate reaction after the decision was to castigate the court for overruling the will of the people, but gave little indication whether and how much he plans to use the issue.
But Sen. Obama, the almost-certain Democratic nominee, has less wiggle room. He favors civil unions — unlike Sen. McCain — and says the legality of gay marriage should be up to the states.
Public opinion about homosexual rights shows voters have become more accepting over time, but strong majorities still tell pollsters they oppose gay marriage. It is not clear that being for civil unions, but against gay marriage is a position that voters who oppose same-sex unions find acceptable.
It is worth remembering that four years ago a Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling legalized gay marriage there, making it the first state to do so. Even though the Massachusetts judges did not directly overturn the voters’ will, as did their California brethren, the Bay State decision put the matter on the front burner nationally in 2004 and led to passage of gay marriage bans in a dozen states.
Squarely on the Front Page
Since then, the issue of gay marriage has been relatively quiet, but the California court’s decision puts it squarely on the front page where it is difficult to say how such publicity could help Sen. Obama. Potentially it could be quite damaging to his candidacy:
• The California ruling will galvanize social conservatives, who have been tepid in their support of Sen. McCain. Although Sen. McCain may not be their favorite politician, they now are likely to see him as far better than Sen. Obama on this issue, and therefore give them an added incentive to vote.
• Opponents of gay marriage are disproportionately concentrated among older, lower socio-economic voters, precisely the group that has been resistant to Sen. Obama in primaries and polls, and with whom he must make progress to win the presidency. Data indicate blacks may be more skeptical about gay right than whites, but that isn’t likely to change Sen. Obama’s overwhelming support in the black community.
• The specifics of the decision - in which the seven-member court overruled the will of a sizable majority of Californians - is tailor-made for an issue that Sen. McCain has already been pushing: His claim that he, unlike Sen. Obama, would not appoint judges who disregard the will of the people and make, rather than interpret, the law.
• The decision puts Sen. Obama’s position on gay marriage in the spotlight and helps make the case that Sen. McCain wants to convey - that his opponent is just another Democratic liberal, not the new age politician he claims.
It is still to be seen how competitive Sen. McCain will be in true-blue California this fall, but the potential for a referendum on a constitutional amendment to reverse the court decision (which Sen. Obama would almost certainly oppose) could help the GOP candidate if he can make it close. |
