ou are wrong in saying that the situation in the ME is quieter than in 1973, there is a real and present danger of a major conflagration out there. Arafat blew up a big chance to get a lot for his people, Sharon is not going to give him half of what Barak was willing to give. Now that Arafat fired up hope of "right of return", and that is not going to happen, a lot of his people will dream about using force to get that. The reason you cannot turn the clock back is very simple, once you tell the Palestinian refugees they have a "right" to go back, you establish international law, and then Germans will want back Breslau and Danzig (now Polish) and Koenigsburg (now Russian), and maybe even Alsace/ Lorraine. That will destabilize Europe.
In 1973, Asia was just starting its growth path, far below any level of over capacity, today Asia (and even in the US, there is excess capacity, the making for a cyclical recession. look at Chrysler, they are going to cut production next quarter by 25%, due to overcapacity and excess inventories.
Zeev |
