John:
Never thought of the fire and brimstone approach, but with my luck a bolt of lightning would do me in forthwith, for too much impudence (g)
I've always enjoyed making money on the basis of doing the grunt work and investing where that activity provided a knowledge advantage over the herd. I cheerfully own up to the fact that a too-slow recognition of the mania cost me plenty as a result of shorting troubled companies too quickly and too "early" as this tech cycle started to unravel. Timing always has been the trick. That said, the tech sector is well and truly into an irreversible supply-demand bind, which the market is finally recognizing. I will happily examine any arguments or data that suggest otherwise, but so far all I see is fairy tale hopes that things might turn around in H2. As noted earlier, that's nonsense.
My timing may still be off a bit, but the run-up in stock prices while earnings have fallen sure improves the risk-reward ratio.
In 1929, a very large percentage of the investing public got creamed while a tiny percentage quietly bought up assets for peanuts. Most of the former thought a crash could never occur. While it may sound like "preaching", I subscribe to the idea that a bit of attention paid to today's deteriorating fundamentals might just pay off rather handsomely.
Over the last year, my observations on the deteriorating conditions within the sector have proven accurate. That deterioration is now highly visible in earnings releases. Stock prices are higher now than last year, mainly as a result of unusual flows of funds from offshore. Should this flow of funds dry up, the market is likely to tank. My research suggests that a big portion of those unusual funds will be cut off by a rise in Japanese interest rates and I've posted my reasons for thinking this way. I'd enjoy examining any information that pokes a hole in this point of view as that is what gets us all thinking.
Don't blame you for poking a bit of good natured fun at my writing style as I do get carried away when I get on a roll. It's deserved.(g)
Best, Earlie |
