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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers

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From: John McCarthy	1/1/2007 11:27:14 PM
	of 78419

from a link posted by Chispas SEVERE EDIT (Link below) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The average cyclical peak to trough decline in starts historically spanned a 46-month time frame. The shortest contraction on record over the past 45 years was twenty-eight months. Can it really be that the current down cycle is done after only eleven months? We think not. Moreover, the average percentage decline in starts from cycle top to bottom historically has been just shy of 62%. So far our current experience has been 30.0%. There’s no question that the recent cycle has seen a very steep drop over a compressed period of time, but common sense tells us this is nothing unusual given the prior unprecedented up cycle length. In the past we’ve pointed out to you the literal unblemished consistency in cycle bottoms at or below 900 thousand in every cycle since 1960. Do we now really bottom at almost twice that level? Moreover, IF we again reach historical cycle bottom experience so clearly visible in the chart on starts, we’re set to drop another maybe 45% from here. Has the market already priced that in? Again, we think not. If the bulls are correct and stabilization/bottoming has occurred, as we are increasingly hearing, then this will be the shortest and most shallow down cycle for housing starts on record in a half century at least. Just ask yourself, set against the context of historical experience, are you willing to bet the bottom in starts has already arrived? (Hint: The deck is stacked heavily against you if you called a bottom. Want to try again?) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> contraryinvestor.com Chispas's post Message 23144534 regards, John

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