Earnings Modification
I posted this at home last night from memory. I wanted to get it exactly right so I checked my sources at work and will repost the following:
The First Call estimates for 1998 only represent Jeff Kessler's estimate of 40 cents. Mr. Kessler states specifically in his analyst notes on the real First Call system, not the AOL version, that "Our revenue optimism is exclusive of any major `enterprise software system' contracts that might arise, but rather from a genearl increase in acceptance of biometric identification around the world. There is increasing business coming from personnel identification at corporations, biometric ID units at ATMs abroad, as well as continued growth in the older law enforcement area." I assume this does not include the Oracle agreement, the Japan contract or the California AFIS contract if IDX should be fortunate enough to get the them. Kessler's estimates for 3Q and 4Q of FYE 1997 are 6 cents and 7cents.
According to Dominick & Dominick's September 1,1995 report, "We estimate a potential aggregate revenue based on a 1% penetration of Oracle's customer base as $100 million." At a 50% gross margin, 35% tax rate and 25 million shares, this equates to approximately $1.00 a share or more. I am not sure that all the sales will take place in one year. Kessler's estimate was made in December 1996.
To show that I am not completely biased, Michael Rindos of H.J. Meyers & Co. predicts in his 10/31/96 report that IDX will earn 8 cents in FYE 1997 and 20 cents in FYE 1998. It appears that his estimates were adversely affected by his preoccupation with DBII lawsuit and the nutcase's nuisance lawsuit, the former of which was subsequently thrown out of court and the latter of which will never be pursued. |
