Robbie,
Thanks for your response and your helpful data. Taking your information (you advised that CSCC earned $23.4MM in 4Q96) plus what ASND earned in 4Q96 -- $41.1MM -- we get combined 4Q96 earnings of $64.5MM.
Now, if ASND/CSCC earns .23/share, that would be about $46MM. This is
28.7% less than 4Q96 (had ASND/CSCC been combined at that time).
One year ago (from when 4Q earnings will be released), for the week ending 1/17/97, ASND closed at 75. A 28.7% reduction from 75 would give a stock price of about 53 1/2. Take a little more off of that 53 1/2 price because earnings growth has slowed (though revenue increases between 30-40% have been predicted for 1998), and you get down to...24???? It does seem that the pendulum has swung too far, doesn't it?
Alternatively, exactly one year ago (12/27/97), ASND closed at 62 1/4. A 28.7% reduction from that is still 45 1/2. Once again, how much more do you take off for slowing earnings growth, past troubles with the MAX TNT, the CSCO threat, etc??? Another 21 points down to 24??? It seems too much.
Gary Korn |
