Ornery Oregonians Size Up Obama
Demorats are busy spinning Barack Obama's win in Oregon yesterday as proof that their presumptive nominee doesn't have such a big problem with white, working-class voters after all. But Mr. Obama's Northwest win says far more about quirky Oregon voters than it does about the candidate.
It's true that Oregon has similar demographics to states that Mr. Obama lost. Like Ohio or Kentucky, Oregon is largely white, has a significant manufacturing base and sports plenty of middle-and low-income voters (the median household income is about $42,000). It's also true Mr. Obama did far better among many of these voters than he has elsewhere. He trounced Hillary Clinton among white men and in every income category save family incomes under $30,000.
Then again, Oregonians have a long tradition of independence, gravitating toward unusual causes and politicians who promise to buck political norms. This is, after all, the state that turned up the nation's first assisted suicide law. It's hard to think of a state where Mr. Obama's "reformist" message would get a better reception.
An even bigger help to Mr. Obama may be that Oregon in recent decades has become the premiere destination of many of those same wealthy, well-educated liberals that have proven so vital to the Illinois Senator's campaign. These transplants turned out for Mr. Obama big; nearly 40% of those voting said they earned more than $75,000 a year. Nearly 65% of voters making more than $100,000 a year gave him their vote.
One question is how Mr. Obama's support in Oregon holds up in a general election against John McCain. Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But John McCain is pitching his "maverick" status to the state, traveling there to deliver a big climate-change speech. Those who see yesterday's primary as a test of how Mr. Obama connects with the white working class may find that, come November, Oregon will prove a far more interesting example of how Mr. Obama fares among independent-minded voters. |
