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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (28938)1/31/2002 9:42:06 AM
From: Paul Shread   of 52237
 
I think in general, declining bearish sentiment in a declining market is bearish, because the sell-off isn't doing much to shake out weak positions. That lower end of the range for bears - under 23% - has held for 5 or 10 years, and has marked a significant top every time, as far as I know. We were under that level two weeks ago. Given that the environment was different in the 1990s, and about as good as it ever gets, I don't see how going to even lower levels of bearish sentiment now would be a good thing.

Again, to bring up the case of 1974, II bears were above 40% for most of the year - and that was in a sharply declining market. They hit 70% at the bottom. At the September 21 low, II bears briefly exceeded bulls, but didn't stay there long, at about 43%.

Admittedly, on a similar timeframe, it's only 1968 here.
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