Welcome, Mike. As regards home-buying, I sure wouldn't be scurrying to buy to beat the Fed's inclination to raise rates. I'd wait 2 years, when rates are lower.
But you may be right about how others will act and how the Fed responds. For the next 2 weeks, there's no economic data that will add clues to this puzzle.
Thus, I expect a sharp dip the end of this week, a brief rally next week, followed by horizontal trading on light volume. As the econ. data rolls in the week of June 5-9, I expect we'll retest the low we set this coming Friday, as the market will price in 1/4 point no matter what.
The consumer confidence index helps gauge what folks are thinking but yeah, I believe lots of folks are buying on credit. I doubt retirees are; thrift is important to folks on largely fixed incomes.
I'd say the greater concerns that impact the Fed are two: wages and oil prices. I still see no rationale for the Fed to do 1/2 point in June; that could suck the wind out of any rally this summer and send us into recession by next Spring. I really can't say if the Fed's power center wants that, but I'm not convinced Greenspan's ( I call him Uncle Algae) really acquiesced to his peers, as some suggest. Given his druthers, I bet he leans to 0 or 1/4.
As for my picks, you just haven't read that far yet:
Message 13746396
I'll be happy to explain my whys if you have further questions on them.
Kevin |
