Susan, Fred, Tim, anybody else who says this is a "story stock", I never talk about earnings, etc, etc, etc....I have posted analyst earnings estimates, etc, for SYSF, but it is not what most of the folks who post on these boards care to talk about. Mainly, you just have a bunch of folks who are unhappy they never bought the stock and want to say bad things about it since other folks are making money, and they are just watching from the sidelines kicking themselves in the butt. Then of course, you have the other group who shorted the stock and actually lost money, and they hate the stock even worse.
I don't consider this a "story stock" since they have grown at 50% for 27 consecutive quarters and have a real product with real demand out there in SystemWizard. "Story stocks" in my opinion are stocks with great concepts, but no real earnings or tangible products yet. You can call it what you will, I call it a big-time bread winner for me.
Anyway, if you must, I'll repeat this one more time. THE analyst (the one CEO Angelo says "knows this company as well as I do") conservatively projects calendar year '98 earnings of $1/share with a 9-month price target of 45 x calendar '98 estimates, or $45/share.
For FY '98 (effectively calendar '97), they are expecting SystemWizard to generate approximately $50 million in revenues. The projections are based on approx. $5/unit with a 10-15% 1st-year market penetration of the approx. 70 million PC's to be shipped PLUS another $8 million in revenue from sales of the SystemWizard Server, too kit, ancillary services and NRE. Of course, they didn't take into account any direct sales, such as the $24.95 (did I say 29.95 before?) charge for direct purchase through direct Internet download. So I'll recalculate for you...I don't plan to buy a new PC next year, but I do plan to download SystemWizard for $24.95. We'll conservatively assume that I am the only purchaser--that gives us $50,000,024.95 in revenues from SystemWizard for FY '98.
Oh, and Tim Oliver has posted over on his thread that Bill Clinton is considering mandating SystemWizard to be included in all PC's shipped by 4th Qtr '97 if he is re-elected. Sounds like a great campaign promise, but I'm still voting for Dole. <g> Lighten up folks...it's
just money we're dealing with here...there are more important things in life you know.
And, yes, SYSF does have a high P/E...if it is too pricey for you, sell and put your money in something more conservative by all means.
Please don't buy this stock just because "Mark McCoy said Andy Grove said...blah blah blah"..... |
