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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Earlie who wrote (29100)5/1/2005 3:29:20 PM
From: RealMuLan   of 116555
 
Earlie, "an Asian-based currency " is definitely a way to go. Asians, including Japan, seems all "making clothing" for the US<g>. Even if Japan and S. Korea can be called rich countries poor people.

But I think China, maybe India too, are far dif. than S. Korea and Japan. If the internal policy is right, the boom can last much longer than most people expected due to their large number of potential consumers. At least in China, the policy between 1993-2002 was not very smart. The reform of switching from gov. subsidized to profitable in 3 major fields -- education (including K12), housing and health care -- has been done too much too soon. And that is why the individual consumption in China is at an all time low now. The gov. realizes that, and changed its policy from 2003. If it is successful, the boom in China will be slower, but can last much longer.

The day for US$ as a world reserve currency will be over, much due to the effort of the US their own<g>

>>If the Asians hope to avoid a selling panic<<

I think they will get out US$ in an orderly manner, although I doubt Japan will have some hard decisions since they have >4 times of the US debt than China.

>>Hard to believe that they will continue to (or can afford to) accept payment for their goods with highly questionable IOUs.<<

I think I read somewhere China only bought $15 billion or something like that of the US debt 1st quarter this year? Can't remember where.

Best to you too.
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