A good summary of what is occurring in Ukraine [compiled by a friend, Jeff Head]:
2014 UKRAINE CRISIS - THE UKRAINE FIGHTS BACK (5/2/2014)
INTRODUCTION:
As documented in Part I and Part II (see the above links) of the Ukrainian Crisis of 2014, the Ukrainian people overthrew their President in February of 2014 and he was forced to flee Kiev and was then impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament. He was moving Ukraine back towards Russian influence and had been close to Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia. The Ukrainian people revolted against this and he was deposed. However, Russia, justifying their action by calling the ouster of the former President a coup, sent its troops into Crimea, a province of Ukraine where the principle Russian warm water naval base was also located. Russia acted to protect its interests in that base and in Crimea, which had been previously a part of Russia but was ceded to the Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev over 60 years earlier.
Soon thereafter, a referendum was held in Crimea and the people of Crimea, with Russian troops on the ground in the province, voted to break from Ukraine and once again be a part of Russia.
There was great fear that Russia would seek to similarly influence, and/or annex other provinces in the southeastern portions of Ukraine that contained large numbers of ethnic Russians.
Throughout the remainder of March and April there was rising unrest in the southeastern provinces of the Ukraine. Masked and heavily armed men took control of several provincial government buildings. pro-Russian demonstrations were held. It was widely felt in western Ukraine and in the western nations of the NATO alliance that these forces at the very least were armed and supported by Russian infiltrators...if not consisting of Russian special forces as well.
While all of this was occurring, a large force of Russian regular military forces, including armor and aircraft began to build on Ukraine's eastern border.
The United States, Germany, France, the UK and other NATO countries protested. The United States sent the Secretary of State to talk to the Foreign Minister of Russia on several occasions in what developed into a "shuttle diplomacy" effort. Mild economic sanctions were leveled by the United States against specific individuals and a few banks in Russia. The situation remained tense.
The International Monetary Fund made a promise to loan Ukraine $17 billion dollars, but only on condition that unrest throughout the country, including in the southeast, was quelled. Ukraine's economy was badly in need of an influx of this type of capital.
Finally, in the last ten days of April, Ukraine determined to take action against the individuals who were holding government buildings in various southeastern Ukrainian provinces, and who were setting up roadblocks there, flying the Russian flag.
The Ukrainian Offensive into southeastern Ukraine:
The largest and strongest outpost of dissent and separatism was in the city of Slovyansk, the administrative center of the Sloviansk Raion district in southeastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers overran and removed several roadblock and outlying strong points and the pro-Russian dissidents fell back into the city center.
  
  
Inside the city, the separatists were more heavily barricaded, and prepared to defend those positions with stronger force. Ukraine moved its armor forward, and began using its own air power, which included SU-27 aircraft, attack helicopters, and assault helicopters to begin to assault and prepare those positions for attack.
  
  
The separatists had held back weapons to contend with some of the aircraft, particularly the helicopters. At least one, and possibly two, were shot down, but Ukrainian troops continued to press forward, now engaging in firefights within the city and they established their own roadblock outside of it.
  
  
This offensives appears to be well coordinated and prepared by Ukrainian forces. It is also meeting resistance. But over the last six to eight weeks, UKraine has had time to gather its forces as the unrest built, and as negotiations went on between Russia and the western European powers and the US. Those negotiations had led to an agreement between the European Union, the US, and Russia in mid April that called for the Russian government to use its influence to have the armed, pro-Russian separatists, to remove themselves from the buildings and roadblocks in the southeastern Ukraine, while the EU and the US would urge Ukraine to show restraint.
After two weeks of the armed separatists not removing themselves from the government buildings or the roadblocks, Ukraine had apparently had enough, and began this offensive.
The Russian Buildup on the Ukrainian border:
After the Russian military occupied Crimea and continued there through the vote for being annexed by Russia, a significant buildup of Russian military began along the southeastern border of Ukraine and Russia.
This buildup has been well documented, and it has been feared that the Russians were preparing to use almost any pretext to invade southeastern Ukraine and annex several of those provinces the way they had done Crimea, under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.
Te buildup has included Russian aircraft, helicopters, and armor to support large numbers of infantry who are also gathering there, estimated to number anywhere from forty to eighty thousand troops.
  
  
With the ongoing military operations by Ukraine to restore order in its own provinces, there is now significant concern that Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, will now order his troops to enter the Ukraine to push the Ukrainian forces back, claiming the danger to ethnic Russians and that this will lead to two or three other Ukrainian provinces being annexed by Russia.
But there may be something that could give Vladimir Putin pause.
The NATO Buildup of Forces in Poland and the Baltic:
While all of this has been going on, the United states and its NATO allies, which now include Poland, the Baltic States, and most of Eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, etc.) Have been steadily building up forces in Poland, which borders the Ukraine on its east.
This includes numerous very modern and potent fighter and strike aircraft and modern refueling tankers and aireborne radar and command and control aircraft.
The US has F-15C Eagles and F-16 Falcons in Poland. The UK has deployed Eurofighter Typhoons there. Canada has sent in F-18 Hornets, and France has deployed its very capable Rafael fighters. Poland is adding its own F-16 fighters and Mig-29 fighter/bombers. Large refueling tankers and E-2 Sentry AWACS aircraft from NATO are also on station.
  
  
All of these aircraft are now patrolling along Poland's eastern frontier, and over the Baltic nations as a show of force to Russia.
In addition, the United States is now also deploying its soldiers directly to the Baltic countries and to Poland and they are gathering there and conducting exercises with their respective NATO forces in those countries.
  
NATO hopes that these forces, and the threat of their use, will deter Vladimir Putin and keep him from invading.
But will they?
Are these forces there to prevent further incursions into Ukraine...or are they there as a buffer against Russian threats beyond Ukraine?
Those are the critical questions now. Clearly, those aircraft could easily support Ukrainian forces in fighting the Russians in southeastern Ukraine if the Russians invade there.
Will that potential be enough to deter Putin? Or will he test that resolve?
This is the question that is likely to be answered in the following days as Ukraine fights back and attempts to end the unrest and Russian separatism that has developed in its southeastern provinces. |
