If he is willing to forfeit carriage of his fox channels on the partner's cable systems, that erases an objection of the DISH deal (that if he partnered with DISH, with their anti-cable stance, he would be frozen out of carriage for his fox cable channels).
All this confusion is helping DTV, according to insiders, because they can just focus on their business plan. But the sales numbers don't show that (see www.dbsdish.com). Instead, they show primestar to be doing well with their new effort, even as the controversy with News Corp. threatens to break up the partnership.
At the end of the day, this situation is so fluid that just about anything could happen (read Sky deal back on). But DISH can also get a useful credit facility and keep right on rolling all by itself. In many ways, that's even more dangerous for DTV, because small companies are maneuverable, and DTV has already shown that it will match whatever DISH does, no matter how it effects their own break-even. On the other hand, with SKY they face more of a long term threat to their market share; DTV can probably live with that because by the time a DISH/SKY venture could complete its internal restructuring and focus on bringing in subs DTV will already be making money and the GM board will be more inclined to help them with whatever they need.
Of course, if you stir the pot you may come up with a foreign telco or somebody else off the wall teaming up with Charlie, knowing that if News Corp. doesn't find a partner, the ownership of that slot will revert back to MCI (the Clinton administration is already objecting to the News Corp. slot being in 100% control of a foreign company) and wanting to put pressure on British Telecom (who, as another foreign company will have to move it or lose it) at a time when they will be unable to address the issue and it will become an anchor to their earnings for a few Q's.
The real winner here is Cable TV, who would be otherwise be getting reamed by satellite, which is a better solution. If they keep buying time like this, they can keep raising prices (TCI has done so 3 times in 12 months) and actually pay for some of this digital set top crap they are pinning their hopes to now.
Quite a world we live in, huh?
Regards,
NPD |
