Larry,
Your comment about me going to the library, obviously means you dont agree with my comment about any shortage in Q4 or Q1. Yes DRAM along with most semiconductors fall in value each year. But the parts also get into supply imbalances for various reasons.
Why dont you go look at DRAM history and note that DRAM supply and demand goes into a shortage about every two years. This particular cycle is the first in a long time that it extends to three years, we are in the third year. Many of the DRAM guys like Handy at Dataquest,IDC, Dios, their reports show a possible shortage in 4th Qtr98 or 1st Qtr 99. These shortages can be package/product related
so for instance 64M PC100 8Mx8 could be tight then where some other none hi demand part would not.
My point was that it would be at least until then before Micron, if they are still around, would have any chance of improving their profit picture. If the DOC final ruling has any impact in July it could change the picture but I really doubt it, since companies like Hyundai have a US FAB running now and could sell that product in the US without any penalty.
I dont really know when and if there will be a shortage, but there maybe be some factors in the marketplace that will cause things to change from time to time and as commodities go, the price will go higher or lower depending on the demand and supply.
Good trading.
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