Hi Charlie,
I am flattered that you think my opinion is valuable. I'm a bit reluctant to tell you whether you should sell your shares or not because I could easily be wrong. This company has surprised me before and it could surprise me again. What follows is based mostly on facts with some educated guesses thrown in.
First, though we haven't seen anything officially confirming this, I think it is safe to say that Babish had little choice in leaving the company. A power struggle developed between him and Rhodes and he lost. In post 2978 Paul said that Babish is gone from the scene. I don't think this is true. I know that Rhodes was doing everything he could to block a shareholders meeting and that Hank got some e-mail form Babish a while back stating that he (Babish) was doing everything he could to get the company to hold a meeting. I hear via the grapevine that this meeting was forced on the company through a court order and I wouldn't be surprised if Babish had something to do with this. I think it is highly likely that Babish will be at the stockholders meeting on August 13th and I suspect that he will not be there to praise how Rhodes has run the company. What follows is speculation based partly on rumors that I've heard and partly on deductions from known facts: I would not be surprised if Babish tries to persuade the shareholders that Rhodes should be kicked out of PRLN and that Babish should be appointed to take control. I think their is still one more act to go in the power struggle between Babish and Rhodes.
This is one of those good news/bad news stories. The bad news is that the power struggle between them looks like it may have destroyed the company. The good news is that this is almost certainly not a scam, at least in the classic sense of the word. I am not an expert, but I believe the science underlying AndroCar and AndroVir is realistic and that these "drugs" will work as advertized. But my opinion on the effectiveness of these "drugs" is no more likely to be correct than anyone else's. I am not an expert and even if I were, I do not have access to the raw experimental data to ensure that everything is on the up and up. But the fact that Rhodes and Babish have been fighting each other indicates they think there is something in this company that is worth fighting for. If this were a scam I think Babish would have run away from the company as fast as he could and he would not have been demanding a stockholders meeting. It's possible that Babish has made a mistake and is wrong when he says that AndroX is effective. But if he is wrong then he has deluded himself as well as us. He is behaving like a man who genuinely believes in the products he's trying to market and not like someone who is intent on pulling a giant fraud.
Michael mentioned that they thought that Babish bungled the marketing of Androvir as a dietary supplement. I'm not sure that this is quite accurate. From the rumors that I hear (and I can not confirm those rumors, so take this for what it is worth), Babish pushed for launching AndroVir as a dietary supplement while Rhodes opposed the DS route. Rhodes wanted to develop AndroX into FDA approved drugs. Babish could not continue the AndroVir DS launch because he was forced out of the company.
I think Rhodes has been trying to get another company with the resources to develop AndroX into FDA approved drugs to buy out PRLN. I don't consider it a good sign that we have gone this long without an announcement. But we could be surprised tomorrow. There is also a possibility that Rhodes may change his mind and decide to market AndroVir as a DS. I think this is unlikely, but I can't rule it out. After all, if he doesn't find a company to buy PRLN then he will have to face a roomful of very angry shareholders in a few weeks. He is not going to want to stand up before them and say "That's all Folks." Maybe if his back is against the wall he will announce a product launch just so he has something positive to announce at the meeting. But I consider this a VERY long shot. And even if he wants to launch a product now, I doubt that PRLN can do it alone at this point. PRLN is running out of money. The last I heard, they were projected to run out of money by September. Perhaps they saved some money by running on a skeleton crew. They don't have many key officers, and I suspect that some of their scientists have either left or are on the verge of leaving. We were supposed to hear the results of their AndroCar study by June. The fact that we haven't heard anything yet makes me think that they may have cut back drastically on their science projects. Unfortunately, what they have saved in personell might have been squandered on lawsuits against John Babish. I have no idea how much money they now have, but it might not be enough to launch a dietary supplement successfully. They may have to get a partner.
PRLN has another product which they may have thrown away. Their Ah-Immunoassay could be used for testing dioxins in the environment inexpensively. Check out this post to find out more about the assay:
techstocks.com
I don't want to tell you the game is over. It's possible Rhodes will pull a rabbit out of the hat. If he does, this has a chance of being a very lucrative rabbit. (Maybe it's not a rabbit. Maybe it's the goose that laid the golden age. But now I'm mixing metaphors. Maybe I caught this from Paul.) But every day that goes by without an announcement diminishes the probability that Rhodes will be able to pull anything off.
Should you sell your stock? I have no idea. But perhaps I can clarify how you should decide for yourself. Pretend that you had not invested any money in PRLN and that you just inherited $2000. Would you invest in PRLN at today's price, knowing what you know now? If you answer "yes" then you should hold onto your stock. If you answer "no" then you might want to consider selling. You will have to pay a brokers fee, but you will get some of your money back.
This stock could double if Rhodes pulls some unexpected magic. It could just as easily go bankrupt.
Good luck.
Robin |
